Background
Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS), first identified in April 2020, shares features of both Kawasaki disease (KD) and toxic shock syndrome (TSS). The surveillance describes the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of PIMS-TS in the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Methods
Public Health England initiated prospective national surveillance of PIMS-TS through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit. Paediatricians were contacted monthly to report PIMS-TS, KD and TSS cases electronically and complete a detailed clinical questionnaire. Cases with symptom onset between 01 March and 15 June 2020 were included.
Findings
There were 216 cases with features of PIMS-TS alone, 13 with features of both PIMS-TS and KD, 28 with features of PIMS-TS and TSS and 11 with features of PIMS-TS, KD and TSS, with differences in age, ethnicity, clinical presentation and disease severity between the phenotypic groups. There was a strong geographical and temporal association between SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and PIMS-TS cases. Of those tested, 14.8% (39/264) children had a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR, and 63.6% (75/118) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. In total 44·0% (118/268) required intensive care, which was more common in cases with a TSS phenotype. Three of five children with cardiac arrest had TSS phenotype. Three children (1·1%) died.
Interpretation
The strong association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and PIMS-TS emphasises the importance of maintaining low community infection rates to reduce the risk of this rare but severe complication in children and adolescents. Close follow-up will be important to monitor long-term complications in children with PIMS-TS.
Funding
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European data that COVID-19 cases are expected to double initially every three days, until social distancing interventions slow this growth, and that the impact of such measures is typically only seen nine days -i.e. three doubling times -after their implementation. We argue that such temporal patterns are more critical than precise estimates of the basic reproduction number for initiating interventions. This observation has particular implications for the low-and middle-income countries currently in the early stages of their local epidemics.
Early assessments of the growth rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but as cases were recorded in multiple countries, more robust inferences could be made. Using multiple countries, data streams and methods, we estimated that, when unconstrained, European COVID-19 confirmed cases doubled on average every 3 days (range 2.2–4.3 days) and Italian hospital and intensive care unit admissions every 2–3 days; values that are significantly lower than the 5–7 days dominating the early published literature. Furthermore, we showed that the impact of physical distancing interventions was typically not seen until at least 9 days after implementation, during which time confirmed cases could grow eightfold. We argue that such temporal patterns are more critical than precise estimates of the time-insensitive basic reproduction number
R
0
for initiating interventions, and that the combination of fast growth and long detection delays explains the struggle in countries' outbreak response better than large values of
R
0
alone. One year on from first reporting these results, reproduction numbers continue to dominate the media and public discourse, but robust estimates of unconstrained growth remain essential for planning worst-case scenarios, and detection delays are still key in informing the relaxation and re-implementation of interventions.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
This paper was submitted to the Bulletin of the World Health Organization and was posted to the COVID-19 open site, according to the protocol for public health emergencies for international concern as described in Vasee Moorthy et al.
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