* Changes in phenology are an inevitable result of climate change, and will have wide-reaching impacts on species, ecosystems, human society and even feedback onto climate. Accurate understanding of phenology is important to adapt to and mitigate such changes. However, analysis of phenology globally has been constrained by lack of data, dependence on geographically limited, non-circular indicators and lack of power in statistical analyses. \ud * To address these challenges, especially for the study of tropical phenology, we developed a flexible and robust analytical approach - using Fourier analysis with confidence intervals - to objectively and quantitatively describe long-term observational phenology data even when data may be noisy. We then tested the power of this approach to detect regular cycles under different scenarios of data noise and length using both simulated and field data. \ud * We use Fourier analysis to quantify flowering phenology from newly available data for 856 individual plants of 70 species observed monthly since 1986 at Lopé National Park, Gabon. After applying a confidence test, we find that 59% of the individuals have regular flowering cycles, and 88% species flower annually. We find time series length to be a significant predictor of the likelihood of confidently detecting a regular cycle from the data. Using simulated data we find that cycle regularity has a greater impact on detecting phenology than event detectability. Power analysis of the Lopé field data shows that at least six years of data are needed for confident detection of the least noisy species, but this varies and is often greater than 20 years for the most noisy species. \ud * There are now a number of large phenology datasets from the tropics, from which insights into current regional and global changes may be gained, if flexible and quantitative analytical approaches are used. However consistent long-term data collection is costly and requires much effort. We provide support for the importance of such research and give suggestions as to how to avoid erroneous interpretation of shorter length datasets and maximize returns from long-term observational studies

The forests of central Africa are distinct from counterpart forests in Amazonia by having fewer trees ≥ 10 cm dbh ha−1, especially small trees < 20 cm dbh, and in having sapling cohorts with less diversity than canopy trees. We tested four hypotheses to investigate whether herbivory, in particular, browsing by forest elephants, could be a factor in these differences. We found that the density of small saplings and diversity of large saplings were inversely associated with local density of elephants. We then tested the hypothesis that steep slopes might serve as refugia from elephant foraging, but found that elephants routinely forage on slopes with an inclination of less than ca 30 deg. Nevertheless, the diversity of small trees (≥ 10 cm, < 20 cm dbh) was higher on slopes than on paired level‐ground sites. The incidence of break scars on saplings ≥ 2 cm dbh and < 6 cm dbh was greater (107/100 stems) on level ground than on slopes (77/100 stems), although high variability precluded statistical significance. After correcting for background breakage not caused by elephants, an estimated 71% of breaks on level ground and 43% of breaks on slopes were attributable to elephants. Liana loads borne by trees at different sites were highly variable and unrelated to slope. Apparently, disturbances are more critical to liana development than herbivory. Elephants, along with other large mammals such as gorillas, duikers, red river hogs and rodents, appear to act as powerful filters on the tree recruitment process in African forests that still retain intact megafaunal communities.

We present the first cross‐continental comparison of the flowering and fruiting phenology of tropical forests across Africa. Flowering events of 5446 trees from 196 species across 12 sites and fruiting events of 4595 trees from 191 species across 11 sites were monitored over periods of 6 to 29 years and analyzed to describe phenology at the continental level. To study phenology, we used Fourier analysis to identify the dominant cycles of flowering and fruiting for each individual tree and we identified the time of year African trees bloom and bear fruit and their relationship to local seasonality. Reproductive strategies were diverse, and no single regular cycle was found in >50% of individuals across all 12 sites. Additionally, we found annual flowering and fruiting cycles to be the most common. Sub‐annual cycles were the next most common for flowering, whereas supra‐annual patterns were the next most common for fruiting. We also identify variation in different subsets of species, with species exhibiting mainly annual cycles most common in West and West Central African tropical forests, while more species at sites in East Central and East African forests showed cycles ranging from sub‐annual to supra‐annual. Despite many trees showing strong seasonality, at most sites some flowering and fruiting occurred all year round. Environmental factors with annual cycles are likely to be important drivers of seasonal periodicity in trees across Africa, but proximate triggers are unlikely to be constant across the continent.

Afrotropical forests host many of the world’s remaining megafauna, but even here they are confined to areas where direct human influences are low. We use a rare long-term dataset of tree reproduction and a photographic database of forest elephants to assess food availability and body condition of an emblematic megafauna species at Lopé National Park, Gabon. We show an 81% decline in fruiting over a 32-year period (1986-2018) and an 11% decline in body condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants from 2008-2018. Fruit famine in one of the last strongholds for African forest elephants should raise concern for the ability of this species and other fruit-dependent megafauna to persist in the long-term, with consequences for broader ecosystem and biosphere functioning.

Forest edges that border savanna are dynamic features of tropical landscapes. Although the role of fire in determining edge dynamics has been relatively well explored, the role of mega-herbivores, specifically elephants, has not received as much attention. We investigated the role of forest elephants in shaping forest edges of the forestsavanna mosaic in Lopé National Park, Gabon. Using forty camera traps, we collected 1.2 million images between May 2016 and June 2017. These images were classified by over 10,000 volunteers