Collateral Effect to Bank Loan Probability for Microenterprises in West SumateraThis paper reveals that West Sumatera banking sector are more likely using the availability of collateral for the credit to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME). Using 384 sample size from MSME in West Sumatera, if a MSME have enough collateral, the probability of their credit application to be rejected by banks will fall from 59.9% to 11.7% comparing to they don’t have enough collateral. This finding proved a credit guarantee scheme is needed, and for the further study it is recommended to conduct research on the characteristic of the potentials of MSME as a credit scoring model for banks.Keywords: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises; Banking Credit; Logistic Model AbstrakPenelitian ini membuktikan bahwa perbankan di Sumatera Barat cenderung untuk menggunakan jaminan yang cukup sebagai dasar penolakan dan pemberian kredit yang diajukan Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM). Menggunakan data hasil survei dengan ukuran sampel sebanyak 384 UMKM di Sumatera Barat, penulis menemukan bahwa peluang sebuah aplikasi kredit yang diajukan UMKM ditolak akan berkurang dari 59,9% menjadi 11,7% jika UMKM tersebut memiliki jaminan yang cukup. Hasil penelitian ini merekomendasikan pentingnya sistem penjaminan kredit untuk UMKM dan sekaligus merekomendasikan untuk melakukan penelitian lanjutan untuk mengindentifikasi karakteristik UMKM yang memiliki potensi yang baik dan pembuatan model kredit scoring.
The long run relationship between inflation and economic growth has been recognized by macroeconomist in the last three decades. For developing countries inflation effect on economic growth is more supply side phenomena than demand side or economic fluctuation (Basu, 2000). On the other hand stable and low inflation rate in the long run will promote higher output growth. I found significance two way causality between inflation and growth in Indonesia. The result has shown a non linier causality relationship from inflation to economic growth using Indonesian annual data from 1981 to 2010. The data reveals there is long run non linier relationship between inflation and growth.
This study explores interconnections between risk behaviour in the financial sector, particularly banking sector, with monetary policy stance. Referring Bernanke and Blinder (1988) modified model for analyzing the bank credit behavior, we develop an empirical model to test the role of risk behaviour in monetary policy transmission mechanism. Vector Error Correction Model are applied to test the significance of interaction between risk variables and monetary policy stance in the short run dynamics of credit behavior around its long-run cointegration with real GDP. Some empirical results emerge from this preliminary study. First, there is early indication that risk taking channel in the monetary policy transmission mechanism exists in Indonesia during analysis period. Second, risk variables and credit tend to move procyclicalyl while monetary policy stance tends to a-cyclical. Third, pro-cyclical behavior of credit and risk variables reverses the effect of loose monetary policy stance, and there is an indication of asymmetric effect between tight monetary policy and loose monetary policy in Indonesian economy. These empirical findings bring about policy recommencations for better understanding on the risk behavior in the banking sector, as well as integration beetween monetary dan financial sector policies.JEL Code : E52, E58,Key word: Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism, Monetary Policy Stance, Banking Risk Behavior, Risk Perception
This study explores interconnections between risk behaviour in the financial sector, particularly banking sector, with monetary policy stance. Referring Bernanke and Blinder (1988) modified model for analyzing the bank credit behavior, we develop an empirical model to test the role of risk behaviour in monetary policy transmission mechanism. Vector Error Correction Model are applied to test the significance of interaction between risk variables and monetary policy stance in the short run dynamics of credit behavior around its long-run cointegration with real GDP. Some empirical results emerge from this preliminary study. First, there is early indication that risk taking channel in the monetary policy transmission mechanism exists in Indonesia during analysis period. Second, risk variables and credit tend to move procyclicalyl while monetary policy stance tends to a-cyclical. Third, pro-cyclical behavior of credit and risk variables reverses the effect of loose monetary policy stance, and there is an indication of asymmetric effect between tight monetary policy and loose monetary policy in Indonesian economy. These empirical findings bring about policy recommencations for better understanding on the risk behavior in the banking sector, as well as integration beetween monetary dan financial sector policies.JEL Code : E52, E58,Keyword: Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism, Monetary Policy Stance, Banking Risk Behavior, Risk Perception
Technological developments and financial innovations, especially in the payment system, have encouraged banks around the world to carry out a number of innovations that have resulted in a new paperless based financial system. The finding that the payment system innovation affects the circulation of money and the stability of the monetary condition of a country, makes this risk possible in Indonesia. By using the error correction model, this study can provide information on the short run dynamic relationship and the impact of payment system innovation represented by non cash payment instruments such as credit cards, debit cards, e-money and payment transaction settlement processes (national clearing system and real time gross settlement) on the velocity of money in Indonesia in the period 2016M1 to 2020M6. The results of the research findings state that the impact generated by the rapid velocity of payment system innovation on the velocity of money circulation is not temporary, this is evidenced by the effect of payment system innovation on the velocity of money circulation which continues over a long period of time.
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