A well-characterised sequence length polymorphism in the serotonin transporter promoter region (5-HTTLPR) influences individual behavioural traits and cognitive abilities in humans and rhesus macaques. Macaques have been classified into four continuous grades on the basis of their behavioural attributes, ranging from highly hierarchical and nepotistic species to the most egalitarian and tolerant ones. A comparative study of several species that spanned these grades revealed only rhesus macaques to be polymorphic at the 5-HTTLPR and concluded that the polymorphism was responsible for their despotic and aggressive behaviour (Wendland et al., Behav Genet 36:163-172, 2006). We studied wild populations of three other species and found that the egalitarian and tolerant bonnet and Arunachal macaques are also polymorphic while liontailed macaques, although belonging to the same group, are monomorphic. We thus reject a role for this particular polymorphism in interspecific behavioural variability and show that polymorphic species enjoy greater ecological success possibly due to their higher intraspecific variability in individual behavioural traits.
Following the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) in France in early December 2020, we used duck mortality data from the index farm to investigate within-flock transmission dynamics. A stochastic epidemic model was fitted to the daily mortality data and model parameters were estimated using an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithm. The model predicted that the first bird in the flock was infected 5 days (95% credible interval, CI: 3-6) prior to the day of suspicion and that the transmission rate was 4.1 new infections per day (95% CI: 2.8-5.8). On average, ducks became infectious 4.1 h (95% CI: 0.7-9.1) after infection and remained infectious for 4.3 days (95% CI: 2.8-5.7). The model also predicted that 34% (50% prediction interval: 8%-76%) of birds would already be infectious by the day of suspicion, emphasizing the substantial latent threat this virus could pose to other poultry farms and to neighbouring wild birds. This study illustrates how mechanistic models can help provide rapid relevant insights that contribute to the management of infectious disease outbreaks of farmed animals. These methods can be applied to future outbreaks and the resulting parameter estimates made available to veterinary services within a few hours.
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