Fish play a key role in the trophic dynamics of lakes, not least in shallow systems. With climate warming, complex changes in fish community structure may be expected owing to the direct and indirect effects of temperature, and indirect effects of eutrophication, water-level changes and salinisation on fish metabolism, biotic interactions and geographical distribution. We review published and new data supporting the hypotheses that, with a warming climate, there will be changes in: fish community structure (e.g. higher or lower richness depending on local conditions); life history traits (e.g. smaller body size, shorter life span, earlier and less synchronised reproduction); feeding mode (i.e. increased omnivory and herbivory); behaviour (i.e. stronger association with littoral areas and a greater proportion of benthivores); and winter survival. All these changes imply higher predation on zooplankton and macroinvertebrates with increasing temperatures, suggesting that the changes in the fish communities partly resemble, and may intensify, the effects triggered by eutrophication. Modulating factors identified in cold and temperate systems, such as the presence of submerged plants and winter ice cover, seem to be weaker or non-existent in warm(ing) lakes. Consequently, in the future lower nutrient thresholds may be needed to obtain clear-water conditions and good ecological status in the future in currently cold or temperate lakes. Although examples are still scarce and more research is needed, we foresee biomanipulation to be a less successful restoration tool in warm(ing) lakes without a strong reduction of the nutrient load.

1. Results are analysed from 11 experiments in which effects of fish addition and nutrient loading on shallow lakes were studied in mesocosms. The experiments, five in 1998, six in 1999, were carried out in six lakes, distributed from Finland to southern Spain, according to a standard protocol. 2. Effects of the treatments on 29 standard chemical, phytoplankton and zooplankton variables are examined to assess the relative importance of bottom-up (nutrient enrichment) and top-down (fish predation) effects. For each year, the experiments in different locations are treated as replicates in a meta-analysis. Results of individual experiments are then compared in terms of the patterns of significant influences of nutrient addition and fish predation with these overall results (the baseline), and between years in the same location. 3. The overall meta-analysis gave consistent results across the 2 years, with nutrient loading influencing all of the chemical variables, and on average 31% of primary producer and 39% of zooplankton variables. In contrast, fish influenced none of the chemical variables, 11% of the primary producer and 44% of the zooplankton variables. Nutrient effects on the system were thus about three times greater than fish effects, although fish effects were not inconsiderable. 4. The relative importance of nutrients and fish in individual experiments often differed between years at the same location and effects deviated to varying degrees from the baseline. These deviations were treated as measures of consistency (predictability) of conclusions in repeat experiments. Consistency increased southwards and this is interpreted as a consequence of more variable annual weather northwards. 5. The influence of nutrient loading was greater southwards and this was probably manifested through naturally greater annual macrophyte abundance in warmer locations in consequence of the longer plant growing-season. There was no trend in the relative importance of fish effects with latitude but this may partly be an artefact of the simple fish Correspondence: Brian Moss,

Summary 1. Shallow lake ecosystems are normally dominated by submerged and emergent plants. Biological stabilising mechanisms help preserve this dominance. The systems may switch to dominance by phytoplankton, however, with loss of submerged plants. This process usually takes place against a background of increasing nutrient loadings but also requires additional switch mechanisms, which damage the plants or interfere with their stabilising mechanisms. 2. The extent to which the details or even major features of this general model may change with geographical location are not clear. Manipulation of the fish community (biomanipulation) has often been used to clear the water of algae and restore the aquatic plants in northerly locations, but it is again not clear whether this is equally appropriate at lower latitudes. 3. Eleven parallel experiments (collectively the International Mesocosm Experiment, IME) were carried out in six lakes in Finland, Sweden, England, the Netherlands and Spain in 1998 and 1999 to investigate the between‐year and large‐scale spatial variation in relationships between nutrient loading and zooplanktivorous fish on submerged plant and plankton communities in shallow lakes. 4. Comparability of experiments in different locations was achieved to a high degree. Cross‐laboratory comparisons of chemical analyses revealed some systematic differences between laboratories. These are unlikely to lead to major misinterpretations. 5. Nutrient addition, overall, had its greatest effect on water chemistry then substantial effects on phytoplankton and zooplankton. Fish addition had its major effect on zooplankton and did not systematically change the water chemistry. There was no trend in the relative importance of fish effects with latitude, but nutrient addition affected more variables with decreasing latitude. 6. The relative importance of top‐down and bottom‐up influences on the plankton differed in different locations and between years at the same location. The outcome of the experiments in different years was more predictable with decreasing latitude and this was attributed to more variable weather at higher latitudes that created more variable starting conditions for the experiments.

1. Lake restoration from eutrophication often rests on a simple paradigm that restriction of phosphorus sources will result in recovery of former relatively clear-water states. This view has apparently arisen from early successful restorations of deep lakes in catchments of poorly weathered rocks. Lakes in the lowlands, however, particularly shallow ones, have proved less tractable to restoration. This study of three lowland lakes provides insights that illuminate a more complex picture. 2. The lakes lie in a sequence along a single stream in a mixed urban and rural landscape. Severely deoxygenating effluent from an overloaded sewage treatment works was diverted from the catchment in 1991. Effects on two lakes, Little Mere (z max <2 m) and Rostherne Mere (z max 31 m) were followed until 2002. Mere Mere (z max ¼ 8 m), upstream of the former works, acted as a comparison for changes in water chemistry. Mere Mere showed no change in total phosphorus (TP), total inorganic nitrogen, or planktonic chlorophyll a concentrations. Increased winter rainfall was associated with higher winter soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium concentrations in its water. 3. Little Mere changed from a deoxygenated, highly enriched, fishless system, with large populations of Daphnia magna Straus, clear water and about 40% aquatic plant cover, to a slightly less clear system following diversion. Daphnia magna was replaced by D. hyalina Leydig as fish recolonised. Spring peaks of chlorophyll a declined but summer concentrations increased significantly. Annual mean chlorophyll a concentrations thus showed no change. Submerged plants became more abundant (up to 100% cover), with fluctuating community composition from year to year. Summer release of SRP from the sediment was substantial and has not decreased since 1993. The summer phytoplankton was apparently controlled by nitrogen availability perhaps with some influence of zooplankton grazing. SRP was always very abundant. The lake appeared to have reached a quasi-stable state by 2002. 5. Rostherne Mere showed a steady decline in TP and SRP concentrations following effluent diversion apparently as a result of steady dilution by water with lower phosphorus concentration. Decline in phosphorus concentrations was much less rapid Correspondence: Brian Moss, Ó 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 1687 than expected because of internal remobilisation from the hypolimnion and sediments.There have been no changes in chlorophyll a concentration or of nitrogen availability and by 2002 the phytoplankton probably remained limited by a combination of mixing, grazing and nitrogen. 6. A seeming paradox is, thus, that immense changes in phosphorus budgets have shown no consequences for phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations in either of the lakes, although the seasonal distribution has altered in Little Mere. Although these case studies deviate from others, for both shallow and deep lakes, they represent distinctive situations rather than undermining conventional models.

SUMMARY1. Responses of zooplankton to nutrient enrichment and fish predation were studied in 1998 and 1999 by carrying out parallel mesocosm experiments in six lakes across Europe. 2. Zooplankton community structure, biomass and responses to nutrient and fish manipulation showed geographical and year-to-year differences. Fish had a greater influence than nutrients in regulating zooplankton biomass and especially the relative abundances of different functional groups of zooplankton. When fish reduced the biomass of large crustaceans, there was a complementary increase in the biomasses of smaller crustacean species and rotifers. 3. High abundance of submerged macrophytes provided refuge for zooplankton against fish predation but this refuge effect differed notably in magnitude among sites. 4. Large crustacean grazers (Daphnia, Diaphanosoma, Sida and Simocephalus) were crucial in controlling algal biomass, while smaller crustacean grazers and rotifers were of minor importance. Large grazers were able to control phytoplankton biomass even under hypereutrophic conditions (up to 1600 lg TP L )1 ) when grazer biomass was high (>80-90 lg dry mass L )1 ) or accounted for >30% of the grazer community.5. The littoral zooplankton community was less resistant to change following nutrient enrichment in southern Spain, at high temperatures (close to 30°C), than at lower temperatures (17-23°C) characterising the other sites. This lower resistance was because of a greater importance of nutrients than zooplankton in controlling algal biomass. 6. Apart from the reduced role of large crustacean grazers at the lowest latitude, no consistent geographical patterns were observed in the responses of zooplankton communities to nutrient and fish manipulation.