Founder analysis is a method for analysis of nonrecombining DNA sequence data, with the aim of identification and dating of migrations into new territory. The method picks out founder sequence types in potential source populations and dates lineage clusters deriving from them in the settlement zone of interest. Here, using mtDNA, we apply the approach to the colonization of Europe, to estimate the proportion of modern lineages whose ancestors arrived during each major phase of settlement. To estimate the Palaeolithic and Neolithic contributions to European mtDNA diversity more accurately than was previously achievable, we have now extended the Near Eastern, European, and northern-Caucasus databases to 1,234, 2,804, and 208 samples, respectively. Both back-migration into the source population and recurrent mutation in the source and derived populations represent major obstacles to this approach. We have developed phylogenetic criteria to take account of both these factors, and we suggest a way to account for multiple dispersals of common sequence types. We conclude that (i) there has been substantial back-migration into the Near East, (ii) the majority of extant mtDNA lineages entered Europe in several waves during the Upper Palaeolithic, (iii) there was a founder effect or bottleneck associated with the Last Glacial Maximum, 20,000 years ago, from which derives the largest fraction of surviving lineages, and (iv) the immigrant Neolithic component is likely to comprise less than one-quarter of the mtDNA pool of modern Europeans.

Founder analysis is a method for analysis of nonrecombining DNA sequence data, with the aim of identification and dating of migrations into new territory. The method picks out founder sequence types in potential source populations and dates lineage clusters deriving from them in the settlement zone of interest. Here, using mtDNA, we apply the approach to the colonization of Europe, to estimate the proportion of modern lineages whose ancestors arrived during each major phase of settlement. To estimate the Palaeolithic and Neolithic contributions to European mtDNA diversity more accurately than was previously achievable, we have now extended the Near Eastern, European, and northern-Caucasus databases to 1,234, 2, 804, and 208 samples, respectively. Both back-migration into the source population and recurrent mutation in the source and derived populations represent major obstacles to this approach. We have developed phylogenetic criteria to take account of both these factors, and we suggest a way to account for multiple dispersals of common sequence types. We conclude that (i) there has been substantial back-migration into the Near East, (ii) the majority of extant mtDNA lineages entered Europe in several waves during the Upper Palaeolithic, (iii) there was a founder effect or bottleneck associated with the Last Glacial Maximum, 20,000 years ago, from which derives the largest fraction of surviving lineages, and (iv) the immigrant Neolithic component is likely to comprise less than one-quarter of the mtDNA pool of modern Europeans.

mtDNA sequence variation was studied in 419 individuals from nine Eurasian populations, by high-resolution RFLP analysis, and it was followed by sequencing of the control region of a subset of these mtDNAs and a detailed survey of previously published data from numerous other European populations. This analysis revealed that a major Paleolithic population expansion from the "Atlantic zone" (southwestern Europe) occurred 10,000-15,000 years ago, after the Last Glacial Maximum. As an mtDNA marker for this expansion we identified haplogroup V, an autochthonous European haplogroup, which most likely originated in the northern Iberian peninsula or southwestern France at about the time of the Younger Dryas. Its sister haplogroup, H, which is distributed throughout the entire range of Caucasoid populations and which originated in the Near East approximately 25,000-30,000 years ago, also took part in this expansion, thus rendering it by far the most frequent (40%-60%) haplogroup in western Europe. Subsequent migrations after the Younger Dryas eventually carried those "Atlantic" mtDNAs into central and northern Europe. This scenario, already implied by archaeological records, is given overwhelming support from both the distribution of the autochthonous European Y chromosome type 15, as detected by the probes 49a/f, and the synthetic maps of nuclear data.

We explored the phylogeography of human Y-chromosomal haplogroup E3b by analyzing 3401 individuals from five continents. Our data refine the phylogeny of the entire haplogroup, which appears as a collection of lineages with very different evolutionary histories, and reveal signatures of several distinct processes of migrations and/or recurrent gene flow that occurred in Africa and western Eurasia over the past 25000 years. In Europe, the overall frequency pattern of haplogroup E-M78 does not support the hypothesis of a uniform spread of people from a single parental Near Eastern population. The distribution of E-M81 chromosomes in Africa closely matches the present area of distribution of Berber-speaking populations on the continent, suggesting a close haplogroup-ethnic group parallelism. E-M34 chromosomes were more likely introduced in Ethiopia from the Near East. In conclusion, the present study shows that earlier work based on fewer Y-chromosome markers led to rather simple historical interpretations and highlights the fact that many population-genetic analyses are not robust to a poorly resolved phylogeny.

Mitochondrial HVS-I sequences from 10,365 subjects belonging to 56 populations/geographical regions of western Eurasia and northern Africa were first surveyed for the presence of the T-->C transition at nucleotide position 16298, a mutation which has previously been shown to characterize haplogroup V mtDNAs. All mtDNAs with this mutation were then screened for a number of diagnostic RFLP sites, revealing two major subsets of mtDNAs. One is haplogroup V proper, and the other has been termed "pre*V," since it predates V phylogenetically. The rather uncommon pre*V tends to be scattered throughout Europe (and northwestern Africa), whereas V attains two peaks of frequency: one situated in southwestern Europe and one in the Saami of northern Scandinavia. Geographical distributions and ages support the scenario that pre*V originated in Europe before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), whereas the more recently derived haplogroup V arose in a southwestern European refugium soon after the LGM. The arrival of V in eastern/central Europe, however, occurred much later, possibly with (post-)Neolithic contacts. The distribution of haplogroup V mtDNAs in modern European populations would thus, at least in part, reflect the pattern of postglacial human recolonization from that refugium, affecting even the Saami. Overall, the present study shows that the dissection of mtDNA variation into small and well-defined evolutionary units is an essential step in the identification of spatial frequency patterns. Mass screening of a few markers identified using complete mtDNA sequences promises to be an efficient strategy for inferring features of human prehistory.