BACKGROUND: Long-term efficacy of opioids for noncancer pain is unproven, but risks argue for cautious prescribing. Few data suggest how long or how much opioid can be prescribed for opioid-naïve patients without inadvertently promoting long-term use. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between initial opioid prescribing patterns and likelihood of long-term use among opioid-naïve patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; data from Oregon resident prescriptions linked to death certificates and hospital discharges. PARTICIPANTS: Patients filling opioid prescriptions between October 1, 2012, and September 30, 2013, with no opioid fills for the previous 365 days. Subgroup analyses examined patients under age 45 who did not die in the follow-up year, excluding most cancer or palliative care patients. MAIN MEASURES: Exposure: Numbers of prescription fills and cumulative morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) dispensed during 30 days following opioid initiation (Binitiation month^). Outcome: Proportion of patients with six or more opioid fills during the subsequent year (Blong-term users^). KEY RESULTS: There were 536,767 opioid-naïve patients who filled an opioid prescription. Of these, 26,785 (5.0 %) became long-term users. Numbers of fills and cumulative MMEs during the initiation month were associated with long-term use. Among patients under age 45 using short-acting opioids who did not die in the follow-up year, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for long-term use among those receiving two fills versus one was 2.25 (95 % CI: 2.17, 2.33). Compared to those who received < 120 total MMEs, those who received between 400 and 799 had an OR of 2.96 (95 % CI: 2.81, 3.11). Patients initiating with long-acting opioids had a higher risk of long-term use than those initiating with short-acting drugs.CONCLUSIONS: Early opioid prescribing patterns are associated with long-term use. While patient characteristics are important, clinicians have greater control over initial prescribing. Our findings may help minimize the risk of inadvertently initiating long-term opioid use.

Lumbar fusion surgery is usually prompted by chronic back pain, and many patients receive long-term preoperative opioid analgesics. Many expect surgery to eliminate the need for opioids. We sought to determine what fraction of long-term preoperative opioid users discontinue or reduce dosage postoperatively; what fraction of patients with little preoperative use initiate long-term use; and what predicts long-term postoperative use. This retrospective cohort study included 2491 adults undergoing lumbar fusion surgery for degenerative conditions, using Oregon's prescription drug monitoring program to quantify opioid use before and after hospitalization. We defined long-term postoperative use as ≥4 prescriptions filled in the 7 months after hospitalization, with at least 3 occurring >30 days after hospitalization. Overall, 1045 patients received long-term opioids preoperatively, and 1094 postoperatively. Among long-term preoperative users, 77.1% continued long-term postoperative use, and 13.8% had episodic use. Only 9.1% discontinued or had short-term postoperative use. Among preoperative users, 34.4% received a lower dose postoperatively, but 44.8% received a higher long-term dose. Among patients with no preoperative opioids, 12.8% became long-term users. In multivariable models, the strongest predictor of long-term postoperative use was cumulative preoperative opioid dose (odds ratio of 15.47 [95% confidence interval 8.53-28.06] in the highest quartile). Cumulative dose and number of opioid prescribers in the 30-day postoperative period were also associated with long-term use. Thus, lumbar fusion surgery infrequently eliminated long-term opioid use. Opioid-naive patients had a substantial risk of initiating long-term use. Patients should have realistic expectations regarding opioid use after lumbar fusion surgery.

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Importance Despite a large rural US population, there are potential differences between rural and urban regions in the processes and outcomes following trauma. Objectives To describe and evaluate rural vs urban processes of care, injury severity, and mortality among injured patients served by 9-1-1 emergency medical services (EMS). Design, Setting, and Participants This was a preplanned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort enrolled from January 1 through December 31, 2011, and followed up through hospitalization. The study included 44 EMS agencies transporting to 28 hospitals in 2 rural and 5 urban counties in Oregon and Washington. A population-based, consecutive sample of 67047 injured children and adults served by EMS (1971 rural and 65 076 urban) was enrolled. Among the 53 487 patients transported by EMS, a stratified probability sample of 17 633 patients (1438 rural and 16 195 urban) was created to track hospital outcomes (78.9% with in-hospital follow-up). Data analysis was performed from June 12, 2015, to May 20, 2016. Exposures Rural was defined at the county level by 60 minutes or more driving proximity to the nearest level I or II trauma center and/or rural designation in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ambulance fee schedule by zip code. Main outcomes and Measures Mortality (out-of-hospital and in-hospital), need for early critical resources, and transfer rates. Results Of the 53 487 injured patients transported by EMS (17 633 patients in the probability sample), 27 535 were women (51.5%); mean (SD) age was 51.6 (26.1) years. Rural vs urban sensitivity of field triage for identifying patients requiring early critical resources was 65.2% vs 80.5%, and only 29.4% of rural patients needing critical resources were initially transported to major trauma centers vs 88.7% of urban patients. After accounting for transfers, 39.8% of rural patients requiring critical resources were cared for in major trauma centers vs 88.7% of urban patients. Overall mortality did not differ between rural and urban regions (1.44% vs 0.89%; P = .09); however, 89.6% of rural deaths occurred within 24 hours compared with 64% of urban deaths. Rural regions had higher transfer rates (3.2% vs 2.7%) and longer transfer distances (median, 97.4 km; interquartile range [IQR], 51.7-394.5 km; range, 47.8-398.6 km vs 22.5 km; IQR, 11.6-24.6 km; range, 3.5-97.4 km). Conclusions and Relevance Most high-risk trauma patients injured in rural areas were cared for outside of major trauma centers and most rural trauma deaths occurred early, although overall mortality did not differ between regions. There are opportunities for improved timeliness and access to major trauma care among patients injured in rural regions.