Background and Aim: Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal adverse event of cirrhosis, and endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is the standard treatment for AVB. We developed a novel bedside risk-scoring model to predict the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing EBL for AVB. Methods: Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship of clinical, biological, and endoscopic variables with the 6-week mortality risk after EBL in a derivation cohort (n = 1373). The primary outcome was the predictive accuracy of the new model for the 6-week mortality in the validation cohort. Moreover, we tested the adequacy of the mortality risk-based stratification and the discriminative performance of our new model in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease scores in the validation cohort (n = 200). Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, five objective variables (use of betablockers, hepatocellular carcinoma, CTP class C, hypovolemic shock at initial presentation, and history of hepatic encephalopathy) were scored to generate a 12-point risk-prediction model. The model stratified the 6-week mortality risk in patients as low (3.5%), intermediate (21.1%), and high (53.4%) (P < 0.001). Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 6-week mortality showed that this model was a better prognostic indicator than the CTP class alone in the derivation (P < 0.001) and validation (P < 0.001) cohorts. Conclusions: A simplified scoring model with high potential for generalization refines the prediction of 6-week mortality in high-risk cirrhotic patients, thereby aiding the targeting and individualization of treatment strategies for decreasing the mortality rate.
Although many studies have investigated the efficacy of stent placement for patients with malignant extrahepatic biliary obstruction, the clinical outcomes and adverse events of biliary stenting have not been comprehensively evaluated. We searched all relevant randomized-controlled trials that evaluated the comparative efficacy of biliary stents, including the plastic stents, uncovered self-expandable metal stents (SEMSs), and covered SEMSs in patients with malignant extrahepatic biliary obstructions. Twenty-one studies with 2326 patients were included. Both uncovered and covered SEMSs had a lower risk of recurrent biliary obstruction (RBO) compared to plastic stents (risk ratio (RR) (95% confidence interval [CI]): uncovered vs. plastic, 0.46 (0.35–0.62); covered vs. plastic, 0.46 (0.34–0.62)). A comparison of the groups using SEMSs revealed that tumor ingrowth was common in the uncovered SEMS group, while stent migration, tumor overgrowth, and occlusion by sludge were common in the covered SEMS group; however, the overall risk of RBO did not differ between these groups (RR (95% CI): uncovered vs. covered: 1.02 (0.80–1.30)). Although the main causes of RBO vary across stents, RBO risk was similar between uncovered and covered SEMS groups. Both SEMSs have superior efficacy in terms of RBO compared to plastic stents.
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