Over the past two decades, the molecular characterization of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) has been revolutionized by the routine implementation of
RAS
and
BRAF
tests. As a result, it is now known that patients with mCRC harboring
BRAF
mutations experience a poor prognosis. Although it accounts for only 10% of mCRC, this group is heterogeneous; only the
BRAF-
V600E mutation, also observed in melanoma, is associated with a very poor prognosis. In terms of treatment, these patients do not benefit from therapeutics targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). In first-line chemotherapy, there are two main options; the first one is to use a triple chemotherapy combination of 5-fluorouracil, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin, with the addition of bevacizumab, because
post hoc
analysis of randomized trials have reported interesting results. The other option is to use double chemotherapy plus bevacizumab, since anti-EGFR seems to have modest activity in these patients. Only a small percentage of patients who experience failure of this first-line treatment receive second-line treatment. Monotherapy with BRAF inhibitors has failed in this setting, and different combinations have also been tested. Using the rationale that BRAF inhibitor monotherapy fails due to feedback activation of the EGFR pathway, BRAF inhibitors have been combined with anti-EGFR agents plus or minus MEK inhibitors; however, the results did not live up to the hopes raised by the concept. To date, the best results in second-line treatment have been obtained with a combination of vemurafenib, cetuximab, and irinotecan. Despite these advances, further improvements are needed.
Background: The benefit of second-line chemotherapy (L2) over standard first-line (L1) gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GEMCIS) or oxaliplatin (GEMOX) chemotherapy in advanced biliary tract cancer (aBTC) is unclear. Our aim was to identify and validate prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) with L2 in aBTC to guide clinical decisions in this setting. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of four prospective patient cohorts: a development cohort (28 French centres) and three validation cohorts from Italy, UK and France. All consecutive patients with aBTC receiving L2 after GEMCIS/GEMOX L1 between 2003 and 2016 were included. The association of clinicobiological data with OS was investigated in univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. A simple score was derived from the multivariate model. Results: The development cohort included 405 patients treated with L1 GEMOX (91%) or GEMCIS. Of them, 55.3% were men, and median age was 64.8 years. Prior surgical resection was observed in 26.7%, and 94.8% had metastatic disease. Performance status (PS) was 0, 1 and 2 in 17.8%, 52.4% and 29.7%, respectively. Among 22 clinical parameters, eight were associated with OS in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, four were independent prognostic factors (p < 0.05): PS, reason for L1 discontinuation, prior resection of primary tumour and peritoneal carcinomatosis. The model had the Harrell's concordance index of 0.655, a good calibration and was validated in the three external cohorts (N Z 392). Conclusion: We validated previously reported predictive factors of OS with L2 and identified peritoneal carcinomatosis as a new pejorative factor in nearly 800 patients. Our model and score may be useful in daily practice and for future clinical trial design. ª
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