ABSTRACT. The semiarid Mahafaly region in southwestern Madagascar is not only a unique biodiversity hotspot, but also one of the poorest regions in the world. Crop failures occur frequently, and despite a great number of rural development programs, no effective progress in terms of improved yields, agricultural income, or well-being among farming households has been observed. In addition to the severe development challenges in the region, environmental degradation and the loss of biodiversity are prevailing issues. This paper takes a social-ecological systems perspective to analyze why the region appears locked in poverty. Specifically, we address the socialecological interaction between environmental factors such as low and variable precipitation, the lack of sustainable intensification in agriculture resulting in recalcitrant hunger, and several environmental degradation trends. The study is based on (i) longitudinal data from 150 farming households interviewed at high temporal resolution during the course of 2014, and (ii) extensive recall surveys from the southwestern Madagascar project region. The analysis reveals a complex interplay of pronounced seasonality in income generation due to recurrent droughts and crop failures making local farmers highly risk averse. This interplay results in a gradual depletion of environmental assets and hinders the accumulation of capital in the hands of smallholder farmers, and improvements in agricultural production even where environmental conditions would allow for it. As a result, households are insufficiently buffered and insured against repetitive income and food security shocks. This can be understood as a set of interacting, partly nested social-ecological traps, which entrench the Mahafalian smallholder population in deep poverty while the productivity of the environment declines. We provide new insights on the interplay between hunger, poverty, and loss of environmental assets in a global biodiversity hotspot. Finally, we propose a set of key issues that need to be considered to unlock this severe lock-in and enable transformation toward a more sustainable development in southwestern Madagascar.
Analytical frameworks provide the basic vocabulary of concepts and terms that may be used to construct the kinds of causal explanations expected of a theory. In addition, framework-based approaches are applied as a way of dealing with the complexity that arises in situations involving human interactions with the environment. This paper presents an example of an application of the "Analytical Framework for a Systemic Analysis of Drivers and Dynamics of Historical Land-Use Changes" with the purpose of showing the role of the selected analytical framework in the design of systemic research, namely as it is conceived and as it develops over time. This analytical framework helps to organize research by linking the theoretical questions to the empirical analysis, while serving as a platform for the construction of theoretical explanations, which represent the flow of knowledge in various contexts and conditions. In the context of systems research, the combination of an analytical framework with grounded theory approaches may allow researchers to achieve both creative thinking and novel outcomes, without losing a certain degree of coherence. We also hope to understand the real motives behind decision-making and dynamics of space and time in order to support the design of policies that take into account local differences.
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