2020. Testing the effects of anthropogenic pressures on a diverse African herbivore community. Ecosphere 11(3):Abstract. Large herbivore communities around the world have declined steeply in recent decades.Although excessive bushmeat harvesting is thought to be the primary cause of herbivore declines in many ecosystems, the direct effects of anthropogenic pressures on large herbivore populations remain poorly described in most of the systems experiencing decline. To test the extent to which large herbivores are impacted by ecological and anthropogenic factors in a protected area (PA) thought to be experiencing human-caused decline, we fit distance sampling models to seven years of data from systematic groundbased surveys in Kafue National Park (KNP) to estimate the population densities and distributions of 10 species of large herbivores, and to test what factors affect these parameters. Population densities of the ten most abundant large herbivores in KNP were substantially lower than those reported for an ecologically similar PA with less poaching pressure. Low densities were consistent across species and areas, though there was ecologically important variation among species and size classes. Densities of larger-bodied herbivores were greatly depressed relative to smaller species. This pattern has direct and indirect effects on large carnivore populations, with broad implications for the ecotourism and trophy hunting industries. Statistically and methodologically rigorous methods to test the effects of anthropogenic and environmental variables on density and distribution exist, but are rarely applied to large herbivores. To quantify trends in herbivore populations and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation actions, our results show that distance sampling with stratified ground-based monitoring is an efficient and effective method. In the Greater Kafue Ecosystem (GKE), continued increases in resource protection are needed to facilitate the recovery of an economically and ecologically important large herbivore guild. More broadly, our results confirm that anthropogenic effects on large herbivore distribution and abundance can be strong over wide areas for all species (particularly the larger members of the guild), even in very large PAs.

Current extinction rates are comparable to five prior mass extinctions in the earth’s history, and are strongly affected by human activities that have modified more than half of the earth’s terrestrial surface. Increasing human activity restricts animal movements and isolates formerly connected populations, a particular concern for the conservation of large carnivores, but no prior research has used high throughput sequencing in a standardized manner to examine genetic connectivity for multiple species of large carnivores and multiple ecosystems. Here, we used RAD SNP genotypes to test for differences in connectivity between multiple ecosystems for African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and lions (Panthera leo), and to test correlations between genetic distance, geographic distance and landscape resistance due to human activity. We found weaker connectivity, a stronger correlation between genetic distance and geographic distance, and a stronger correlation between genetic distance and landscape resistance for lions than for wild dogs, and propose a new hypothesis that adaptations to interspecific competition may help to explain differences in vulnerability to isolation by humans.

Large carnivores have experienced considerable range contraction, increasing the importance of movement across human-altered landscapes between small, isolated populations. African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are exceptionally wide-ranging, and recolonization is an important element of their persistence at broad scales. The competition-movement-connection hypothesis suggests that adaptations to move through areas that are unfavorable due to dominant competitors might promote the ability of subordinate competitors (like wild dogs) to move through areas that are unfavorable due to humans. Here, we used hidden Markov models to test how wild dog movements were affected by the Human Footprint Index in areas inside and outside of South Luangwa National Park. Movements were faster and more directed when outside the National Park, but slowed where the human footprint was stronger. Our results can be directly and quantitatively applied to connectivity planning, and we use them to identify ways to better understand differences between species in recent loss of connectivity.

Large carnivores are experiencing range contraction and population declines globally. Prey depletion due to illegal offtake is considered a major contributor, but the effects of prey depletion on large carnivore demography are rarely tested. We measured African lion density and tested the factors that affect survival using mark-recapture models fit to six years of data from known individuals in Kafue National Park (KNP), Zambia. KNP is affected by prey depletion, particularly for large herbivores that were preferred prey for KNP lions a halfcentury ago. This provides a unique opportunity to test whether variables that explain local prey density also affect lion survival. Average lion density within our study area was 3.43 individuals/100 km 2 (95% CI, 2.79-4.23), which was much lower than lion density reported for another miombo ecosystem with similar vegetation structure and rainfall that was less affected by prey depletion. Despite this, comparison to other lion populations showed that age-and sex-specific survival rates for KNP lions were generally good, and factors known to correlate with local prey density had small effects on lion survival. In contrast, recruitment of cubs was poor and average pride size was small. In particular, the proportion of the population comprised of second-year cubs was low, indicating that few cubs are recruited into the subadult age class. Our findings suggest that low recruitment might be a better signal of low prey density than survival. Thus, describing a lion population's age structure in addition to average pride size may be a simple and effective method of initially evaluating whether a lion population is affected by prey depletion. These dynamics should be evaluated for other lion populations and other large carnivore species. Increased resource protection and reducing the underlying drivers of prey depletion are urgent conservation needs for lions and other large carnivores as their conservation is increasingly threatened by range contraction and population declines.

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