Acquired genomic aberrations have been shown to significantly impact survival in several hematologic malignancies. We analyzed the prognostic value of the most frequent chromosomal changes in a large series of patients with newly diagnosed symptomatic myeloma prospectively enrolled in homogeneous therapeutic trials. All the 1064 patients enrolled in the IFM99 trials conducted by the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome benefited from an interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis performed on purified bone marrow plasma cells. They were systematically screened for the following genomic aberrations: del(13), t(11;14), t(4;14), hyperdiploidy, MYC translocations, and del(17p). Chromosomal changes were observed in 90% of the patients. The del(13), t(11;14), t(4;14), hyperdiploidy, MYC translocations, and del(17p) were present in 48%, 21%, 14%, 39%, 13%, and 11% of the patients, respectively. After a median follow-up of 41 months, univariate statistical analyses revealed that del(13), t(4;14), nonhyperdiploidy, and del(17p) negatively impacted both the event-free survival and the overall survival, whereas t(11;14) and MYC translocations did not influence the prognosis. Multivariate analyses on 513 patients annotated for all the parameters showed that only t(4;14) and del(17p) retained prognostic value for both the event-free and overall survivals. When compared with the currently used International Staging System, this prognostic model compares favorably. In myeloma, the genomic aberrations t(4;14) and del(17p), together with beta2-microglobulin level, are important independent predictors of survival. These findings have implications for the design of risk-adapted treatment strategies.
Gene expression-based survival prediction and molecular features associated with high-risk patients may be useful for developing prognostic markers and may provide basis to treat these patients with new targeted antimitotics.
Purpose Chromosomal aberrations are a hallmark of multiple myeloma but their global prognostic impact is largely unknown. Patients and Methods We performed a genome-wide analysis of malignant plasma cells from 192 newly diagnosed patients with myeloma using high-density, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays to identify genetic lesions associated with prognosis. Results Our analyses revealed deletions and amplifications in 98% of patients. Amplifications in 1q and deletions in 1p, 12p, 14q, 16q, and 22q were the most frequent lesions associated with adverse prognosis, whereas recurrent amplifications of chromosomes 5, 9, 11, 15, and 19 conferred a favorable prognosis. Multivariate analysis retained three independent lesions: amp(1q23.3), amp(5q31.3), and del(12p13.31). When adjusted to the established prognostic variables (ie, t(4;14), del(17p), and serum β2-microglobulin [Sβ2M]), del(12p13.31) remained the most powerful independent adverse marker (P < .0001; hazard ratio [HR], 3.17) followed by Sβ2M (P < .0001; HR, 2.78) and the favorable marker amp(5q31.3) (P = .0005; HR, 0.37). Patients with amp(5q31.3) alone and low Sβ2M had an excellent prognosis (5-year overall survival, 87%); conversely, patients with del(12p13.31) alone or amp(5q31.3) and del(12p13.31) and high Sβ2M had a very poor outcome (5-year overall survival, 20%). This prognostic model was validated in an independent validation cohort of 273 patients with myeloma. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the power and accessibility of molecular karyotyping to predict outcome in myeloma. In addition, integration of expression of genes residing in the lesions of interest revealed putative features of the disease driving short survival.
In the context of ASCT, achievement of at least VGPR is a simple prognostic factor that has importance in intermediate and high-risk MM and can be informative in more patients than CR.
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