Using longitudinal data from three demographic surveillance systems (DSS) and a retrospective cohort study, we estimate levels and trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi in the period 1988Á2004. The prevalence of maternal, paternal, and double orphans rose in all three populations. In South Africa*where the HIV epidemic started later, has been very severe, and has not yet stabilized*the incidence of orphanhood among children is double that of the other populations. The living arrangements of children vary considerably between the populations, particularly in relation to fathers. Patterns of marriage, migration, and adult mortality influence the living and care arrangements of orphans and non-orphans. DSS data provide new insights into the impact of adult mortality on children, challenging several widely held assumptions. For example, we find no evidence that the prevalence of child-headed households is significant or has increased in the three study areas.

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BackgroundStudies on migration often ignore the health and social impact of migrants returning to their rural communities. Several studies have shown migrants to be particularly susceptible to HIV infection. This paper investigates whether migrants to rural households have a higher risk of dying, especially from HIV, than non-migrants.MethodsUsing data from a large and ongoing Demographic Surveillance System, 41,517 adults, enumerated in bi-annual rounds between 2001 and 2005, and aged 18 to 60 years were categorized into four groups: external in-migrants, internal migrants, out-migrants and residents. The risk of dying by migration status was quantified by Cox proportional hazard regression. In a sub-group analysis of 1212 deaths which occurred in 2000 – 2001 and for which cause of death information was available, the relationship between migration status and dying from AIDS was examined in logistic regression.ResultsIn all, 618 deaths were recorded among 7,867 external in-migrants, 255 among 4,403 internal migrants, 310 among 11,476 out-migrants and 1900 deaths were registered among 17,771 residents. External in-migrants were 28% more likely to die than residents [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) = 1.28, P < 0.001, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) (1.16, 1.41)]. In the sub-group analysis, the odds of dying from AIDS was 1.79 [adjusted Odd ratio (aOR) = 1.79, P = 0.009, 95% CI (1.15, 2.78)] for external in-migrants compared to residents; there was no statistically significant difference in AIDS mortality between residents and out-migrants, [aOR = 1.25, P = 0.533, 95% CI (0.62–2.53)]. Independently, females were more likely to die from AIDS than males [aOR = 2.35, P < 0.001, 95% CI (1.79, 3.08)].ConclusionExternal in-migrants have a higher risk of dying, especially from HIV related causes, than residents, and in areas with substantial migration this needs to be taken into account in evaluating mortality statistics and planning health care services.

Background: To present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC) sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population.

Objective To evaluate ascertainment of the onset of community transmission of influenza A/H1N1 2009 (swine flu) in England during the earliest phase of the epidemic through comparing data from two surveillance systems.Design Cross sectional opportunistic survey.Study samples Results from self samples by consenting patients who had called the NHS Direct telephone health line with cold or flu symptoms, or both, and results from Health Protection Agency (HPA) regional microbiology laboratories on patients tested according to the clinical algorithm for the management of suspected cases of swine flu.Setting Six regions of England between 24 May and 30 June 2009. Main outcome measure Proportion of specimens with laboratory evidence of influenza A/H1N1 2009.Results Influenza A/H1N1 2009 infections were detected in 91 (7%) of the 1385 self sampled specimens tested. In addition, eight instances of influenza A/H3 infection and two cases of influenza B infection were detected. The weekly rate of change in the proportions of infected individuals according to self obtained samples closely matched the rate of increase in the proportions of infected people reported by HPA regional laboratories. Comparing the data from both systems showed that local community transmission was occurring in London and the West Midlands once HPA regional laboratories began detecting 100 or more influenza A/H1N1 2009 infections, or a proportion positive of over 20% of those tested, each week.Conclusions Trends in the proportion of patients with influenza A/H1N1 2009 across regions detected through clinical management were mirrored by the proportion of NHS Direct callers with laboratory confirmed infection. The initial concern that information from HPA regional laboratory reports would be too limited because it was based on testing patients with either travel associated risk or who were contacts of other influenza cases was unfounded. Reports from HPA regional laboratories could be used to recognise the extent to which local community transmission was occurring.