With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4-and 1-kmgridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4-and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12-and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.
SUMMARYThis paper investigates daytime convective development over land and its representation in single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs). A model intercomparison case is developed based on observations of the diurnal cycle and convection during the rainy season in Amazonia. The focus is on the 6 h period between sunrise and early afternoon which was identified in previous studies as critical for the diurnal cycle over summertime continents in numerical weather prediction and climate models. This period is characterized by the formation and growth of a well-mixed convective boundary layer from the early morning temperature and moisture profiles as the surface sensible-and latent-heat fluxes increase after sunrise. It proceeds with the formation of shallow convective clouds as the convective boundary layer deepens, and leads to the eventual transition from shallow to deep precipitating convection around local noon. To provide a benchmark for other models, a custom-designed set of simulations, applying increasing in time computational domain and decreasing spatial resolution, was executed. The SCMs reproduced the previously identified problem with premature development of deep convection, less than two hours after sunrise. The benchmark simulations suggest a possible route to improve SCMs by considering a time-evolving cumulus entrainment rate as convection evolves from shallow to deep and the cloud width increases up to an order of magnitude. The CRMs featuring horizontal grid length around 500 m are capable of capturing the qualitative aspects of the benchmark simulations, but there are significant differences among the models. Two-dimensional CRMs tend to simulate too rapid a transition from shallow to deep convection and too high a cloud cover.
This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.We perform simulations of several convective events over the southern UK with the Met Office Unified Model (UM) at horizontal grid lengths ranging from 1.5 km to 200 m. Comparing the simulated storms on these days with the Met Office rainfall radar network allows us to apply a statistical approach to evaluate the properties and evolution of the simulated storms over a range of conditions. Here we present results comparing the storm morphology in the model and reality which show that the simulated storms become smaller as grid length decreases and that the grid length that fits the observations best changes with the size of the observed cells. We investigate the sensitivity of storm morphology in the model to the mixing length used in the subgrid turbulence scheme. As the subgrid mixing length is decreased, the number of small storms with high area-averaged rain rates increases. We show that, by changing the mixing length, we can produce a lower-resolution simulation which produces similar morphologies to a higher-resolution simulation.
The 3D structures of over 1,000 convective storms observed by the Chilbolton radar are used to constrain storm dynamics and microphysics in models with resolutions between 100 and 1,500 m.
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