Natural history studies have identified factors that predict evolution to multiple sclerosis or risk of disability accumulation over time. Although these studies are based on large multicentre cohorts with long follow-ups, they have limitations such as lack of standardized protocols, a retrospective data collection or lack of a systematic magnetic resonance imaging acquisition and analysis protocol, often resulting in failure to take magnetic resonance and oligoclonal bands into account as joint covariates in the prediction models. To overcome some of these limitations, the aim of our study was to identify and stratify baseline demographic, clinical, radiological and biological characteristics that might predict multiple sclerosis development and disability accumulation using a multivariate approach based on a large prospective cohort of patients with clinically isolated syndromes. From 1995 to 2013, 1058 patients with clinically isolated syndromes were included. We evaluated the influence of baseline prognostic factors on the risk for developing clinically definite multiple sclerosis, McDonald multiple sclerosis, and disability accumulation (Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 3.0) based on univariate (hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) and multivariate (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) Cox regression models. We ultimately included 1015 patients followed for a mean of 81 (standard deviation = 57) months. Female/male ratio was 2.1. Females exhibited a similar risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and of disability accumulation compared to males. Each younger decade at onset was associated with a greater risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and with a protective effect on disability. Patients with optic neuritis had a lower risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [hazard ratio 0.6 (0.5-0.8)] and disability progression [hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.8)]; however, this protective effect remained marginal only for disability [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-1.0)] in adjusted models. The presence of oligoclonal bands increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 1.3 (1.0-1.8)] and of disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.0 (1.2-3.6)] independently of other factors. The presence of 10 or more brain lesions on magnetic resonance increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 11.3 (6.7-19.3)] and disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.9 (1.4-6.0)]. Disease-modifying treatment before the second attack reduced the risk of McDonald multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-0.9)] and disability accumulation [adjusted hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.9)]. We conclude that the demographic and topographic characteristics are low-impact prognostic factors, the presence of oligoclonal bands is a medium-impact prognostic factor, and the number of lesions on brain magnetic resonance is a high-impact prognostic factor.

Presence of oligoclonal bands doubles the risk for having a second attack, independently of MRI, but does not seem to influence the development of disability.

Baseline MRI determines the risk for converting to clinically definite multiple sclerosis and correlates with disability at 5 years. The proportion of patients developing disability is low during the first 5 years but rapidly increases shortly after.

Background and purpose: Information regarding multiple sclerosis (MS) patients with the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is scarce. The study objective was to describe the incidence and characteristics of MS patients with COVID-19, to identify susceptibility and severity risk factors and to assess the proportion of positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) serologies according to disease-modifying treatments.Methods: This was a retrospective study of an MS cohort analysing data collected between February and May 2020. Cases were identified through an email survey and clinical visits. The relationship of demographic and MS characteristics with COVID-19 and of the disease-modifying treatments with SARS-CoV-2 serostatus were examined.Results: Data from 48 suspected cases out of 758 valid respondents and from 45 COVID-19 cases identified through clinical visits were collected. Incidence was 6.3%. Nineteen (20.3%) patients were hospitalized and two (2.2%) died. Multivariable models determined that age (odds ratio [OR] per 10 years 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.34-0.85), contact with a confirmed case (OR 197.02,, residence in Barcelona (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.03-4.80), MS duration (OR per 5 years 1.41, 95% CI 1.09-1.83) and time on anti-CD20 treatment (OR per 2 years 3.48, 95% CI 1.44-8.45) were independent factors for presenting COVID-19 and age (OR per 10 years 2.71, 95% CI 1.13-6.53) for a severe COVID-19. Out of the 79 (84.9%) with serological test, 45.6% generated antibodies, but only 17.6% of those on anti-CD20 therapies. Lymphopaenia or immunoglobulin levels did not relate to COVID-19.Conclusions: Multiple sclerosis patients present similar incidence, risk factors and outcomes for COVID-19 as the general population. Patients treated with an anti-CD20 therapy for a longer period of time might be at a higher risk of COVID-19 and less than 20% generate an antibody response. Only age was related to severity.