We present a new set of parton distribution functions (PDFs) based on a fully global dataset and machine learning techniques: NNPDF4.0. We expand the NNPDF3.1 determination with 44 new datasets, mostly from the LHC. We derive a novel methodology through hyperparameter optimization, leading to an efficient fitting algorithm built upon stochastic gradient descent. We use NNLO QCD calculations and account for NLO electroweak corrections and nuclear uncertainties. Theoretical improvements in the PDF description include a systematic implementation of positivity constraints and integrability of sum rules. We validate our methodology by means of closure tests and “future tests” (i.e. tests of backward and forward data compatibility), and assess its stability, specifically upon changes of PDF parametrization basis. We study the internal compatibility of our dataset, and investigate the dependence of results both upon the choice of input dataset and of fitting methodology. We perform a first study of the phenomenological implications of NNPDF4.0 on representative LHC processes. The software framework used to produce NNPDF4.0 is made available as an open-source package together with documentation and examples.

We formulate a general approach to the inclusion of theoretical uncertainties, specifically those related to the missing higher order uncertainty (MHOU), in the determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs). We demonstrate how, under quite generic assumptions, theory uncertainties can be included as an extra contribution to the covariance matrix when determining PDFs from data. We then review, clarify, and systematize the use of renormalization and factorization scale variations as a means to estimate MHOUs consistently in deep inelastic and hadronic processes. We define a set of prescriptions for constructing a theory covariance matrix using scale variations, which can be used in global fits of data from a wide range of different processes, based on choosing a set of independent scale variations suitably correlated within and across processes. We set up an algebraic framework for the choice and validation of an optimal prescription by comparing the estimate of MHOU encoded in the next-to-leading order (NLO) theory covariance matrix to the observed shifts between NLO and NNLO predictions. We perform a NLO PDF determination which includes the MHOU, assess the impact of the inclusion of MHOUs on the PDF central values and uncertainties, and validate the results by comparison to the known shift between NLO and NNLO PDFs. We finally study the impact of the inclusion of MHOUs in a global PDF determination on LHC cross-sections, and provide guidelines for their use in precision phenomenology. In addition, we also compare the results based on the theory covariance matrix formalism to those obtained by performing PDF determinations based on different scale choices.

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We formulate a general approach to the inclusion of theoretical uncertainties, specifically those related to the missing higher order uncertainty (MHOU), in the determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs). We demonstrate how, under quite generic assumptions, theory uncertainties can be included as an extra contribution to the covariance matrix when determining PDFs from data. We then review, clarify, and systematize the use of renormalization and factorization scale variations as a means to estimate MHOUs consistently in deep inelastic and hadronic processes. We define a set of prescriptions for constructing a theory covariance matrix using scale variations, which can be used in global fits of data from a wide range of different processes, based on choosing a set of independent scale variations suitably correlated within and across processes. We set up an algebraic framework for the choice and validation of an optimal prescription by comparing the estimate of MHOU encoded in the next-to-leading order (NLO) theory covariance matrix to the observed shifts between NLO and NNLO predictions. We perform a NLO PDF determination which includes the MHOU, assess the impact of the inclusion of MHOUs on the PDF central values and uncertainties, and validate the results by comparison to the known shift between NLO and NNLO PDFs. We finally study the impact of the inclusion of MHOUs in a global PDF determination on LHC cross-sections, and provide guidelines for their use in precision phenomenology.

The high-energy tails of charged- and neutral-current Drell-Yan processes provide important constraints on the light quark and anti-quark parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the large-x region. At the same time, short-distance new physics effects such as those encoded by the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) would induce smooth distortions to the same high-energy Drell-Yan tails. In this work, we assess for the first time the interplay between PDFs and EFT effects for high-mass Drell-Yan processes at the LHC and quantify the impact that the consistent joint determination of PDFs and Wilson coefficients has on the bounds derived for the latter. We consider two well-motivated new physics scenarios: 1) electroweak oblique corrections ($$ \hat{W},\hat{Y} $$ W ̂ , Y ̂ ) and 2) four-fermion interactions potentially related to the LHCb anomalies in R(K(*)). We account for available Drell-Yan data, both from unfolded cross sections and from searches, and carry out dedicated projections for the High-Luminosity LHC. Our main finding is that, while the interplay between PDFs and EFT effects remains moderate for the current dataset, it will become a significant challenge for EFT analyses at the HL-LHC.