Correctional psychologists have classified risk factors for criminal recidivism into static (non--changing, non--improving) and dynamic (theoretically changeable) domains. By definition, a dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, offenders' likelihood of recidivism must logically change in This dissertation is organized to allow readers to focus their attention on the goals relevant to their interests. Chapter 1 reviews prior literature on dynamic risk, and describes the theoretical reasons why repeatedly measuring dynamic variables should enhance decision--making within correctional supervision. Chapter 2 addresses the statistical modeling of re--assessment data by (a) describing a researcher's choice of statistical models when attempting to analyze re--assessment data, and (b) introducing the features of the Cox regression model with time--varying predictors. Chapter 3 describes the dataset used within this dissertation, as well as the measurement and procedures of the study from which the dataset was drawn.The remaining chapters address whether it is meaningful for an agency to continually re--assess offenders with a purportedly dynamic risk measure. Chapter 4 describes the initial descriptive results of the re--assessment data, and presents the basic prediction models using Cox regression with time--varying predictors. Chapter 5 specifically addresses model--building strategies for testing the hypothesis that distal assessments (i.e., initial baseline scores) will demonstrate weaker predictive validity compared to models that include more proximal assessments (i.e., re-assessments).In conclusion, Chapter 6 provides a general discussion of the results drawn from the analyses, comments on the implications of the findings, and proposes some directions for future research. Chapter 1: Theory, Literature, and HypothesisVariables that are statistically associated with future criminal offending are termed risk factors, and the assessment of an individual's risk factors plays a critical hypothesized schemas (Simons & Burt, 2011). In turn, the schemas were related to interpretations of situations (perceived provocations and opportunities), and these interpretations were directly related to criminal delinquency . Further, Simons and Barr (2014) demonstrated that delinquents who engaged in high--quality romantic relationships in young adulthood simultaneously reduced their criminal behavior, and that simultaneous changes in social schemas could account for approximately one--third of the partnership--crime reduction effect. In summary, this set of research suggests that background features indirectly influence all stages of criminal involvement (onset, repeat offending, and cessation) through social schemas (pro--crime perspectives), which directly impact criminal action, if they are accessible to the individual in an immediate situation.

A dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, there is a corresponding change in the likelihood of the outcome. In corrections, there is evidence for dynamic risk factors when relatively more proximal reassessments enhance predictive validity for recidivism. In this article, we tested the proximity hypothesis with longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N ϭ 68,667 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by corrections case managers). In this sample, reassessments consistently improved prediction as demonstrated by (1) incremental prediction over initial baseline scores and (2) improved model fit of the most recent assessment compared with the average of earlier scores. These results contribute to a growing body of evidence that support community corrections agencies conducting repeated assessments of the risk for imminent recidivism using a dynamic risk instrument. Public Significance StatementCorrections agencies should regularly reassess risk for recidivism during parole because updated assessments are more accurate than prior assessments. Promoting personal and situational changes related to patterns of reducing risk in the community should be a core objective for psychologists and other professionals engaged with the successful reintegration of individuals with a history of crime.

Prior research focusing on crime acquisition and crime desistance has advanced the theoretical understanding of the psychology of crime and overcome many of the practical challenges of crime management. This paper, however, aims to encourage more detailed examination of the process through which offenders transition from crime to desistance. Desistance occurs when external and internal variables align in such a way that an offender with a history of multiple offences ceases all criminal activity. It is argued that systematic examination of behaviour change among offenders will complement current approaches to offender rehabilitation, risk assessment and community supervision. Previous research on crime acquisition, crime desistance and behaviour change are briefly reviewed. In addition, the theoretical assumptions of leading models of rehabilitation are examined. Finally, strategies to further integrate various research findings are discussed and several broad research hypotheses are offered.

No abstract

No abstract