Code availabilityAll code for data cleaning and analysis associated with the current submission is available upon request to the corresponding author and is provided as part of the replication package.

No abstract

The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701).

Objective:To predict when cognitively normal individuals with brain amyloidosis will develop symptoms of Alzheimer disease (AD).Methods:Brain amyloid burden was measured by amyloid PET with Pittsburgh compound B. The mean cortical standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) was transformed into a timescale using longitudinal data.Results:Amyloid accumulation was evaluated in 236 individuals who underwent more than one amyloid PET scan. The average age was 66.5 ± 9.2 years and twelve individuals (5%) had cognitive impairment at their baseline amyloid PET scan. A tipping point in amyloid accumulation was identified at a low level of amyloid burden (SUVR 1.2), after which nearly all individuals accumulated amyloid at a relatively consistent rate until reaching a high level of amyloid burden (SUVR 3.0). The average time between levels of amyloid burden was used to estimate the age at which an individual reached SUVR 1.2. Longitudinal clinical diagnoses for 180 individuals were aligned by the estimated age at SUVR 1.2. In the twenty-two individuals who progressed from cognitively normal to a typical AD dementia syndrome, the estimated age at which an individual reached SUVR 1.2 predicted the age at symptom onset (R2=0.54, p<0.0001, root mean square error (RMSE) 4.5 years); the model was more accurate after exclusion of three likely misdiagnoses (R2=0.84, p<0.0001, RMSE of 2.8 years).Conclusions:The age of symptom onset in sporadic AD is strongly correlated with the age that an individual reaches a tipping point in amyloid accumulation.