Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disorder characterized by inflammation of multiple organ systems and dysregulated interferon responses. SLE is both genetically and phenotypically heterogeneous, greatly reducing the power of case-control studies in SLE. Elevated circulating interferon alpha (IFN-α) is a stable, heritable trait in SLE, which has been implicated in primary disease pathogenesis. 40–50% of patients have high IFN-α, and high levels correspond with clinical differences. To study genetic heterogeneity in SLE, we performed a case-case study comparing patients with high vs. low IFN-α in over 1550 SLE cases, including GWAS and replication cohorts. In meta-analysis, the top associations in European ancestry were PRKG1 rs7897633 (PMeta=2.75 × 10−8) and PNP rs1049564 (PMeta=1.24 × 10−7). We also found evidence for cross-ancestral background associations with the ANKRD44 and PLEKHF2 loci. These loci have not been previously identified in case-control SLE genetic studies. Bioinformatic analyses implicated these loci functionally in dendritic cells and natural killer cells, both of which are involved in IFN-α production in SLE. As case-control studies of heterogeneous diseases reach a limit of feasibility with respect to subject number and detectable effect size, the study of informative pathogenic subphenotypes becomes an attractive strategy for genetic discovery in complex disease.

Alleles of IRF8 are associated with susceptibility to both systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and multiple sclerosis (MS). While high type I interferon (IFN) is thought to be causal in SLE, type I IFN is used as a therapy in MS. We investigated whether IRF8 alleles were associated with type I IFN levels or serologic profiles in SLE and MS. Alleles which have been previously associated with SLE or MS were genotyped in SLE and MS patients. The MS-associated rs17445836G allele was associated with anti-dsDNA autoantibodies in SLE patients (meta-analysis OR=1.92). The same allele was associated with decreased serum IFN activity in SLE patients with anti-dsDNA antibodies, and with decreased type I IFN-induced gene expression in PBMC from anti-dsDNA negative SLE patients. In secondary progressive MS patients, rs17445836G was associated with decreased serum type I IFN. Rs17445836G was associated with increased IRF8 expression in SLE patient B cells. In summary, IRF8 rs17445836G is associated with human autoimmune disease characterized by low type I IFN levels, and this may have pharmacogenetic relevance as type I IFN is modulated in SLE and MS. The association with autoantibodies and increased IRF8 expression in B cells supports a role for rs17445836G in humoral tolerance.

Objective Studies suggest that circulating type I interferon (IFN) may predict response to biological agents in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Prediction of response prior to initiating therapy would represent a major advancement. Methods We studied sera from a test set of 32 patients with RA from the Auto-immune Biomarkers Collaborative Network Consortium and a validation set of 92 patients with RA from the Treatment Efficacy and Toxicity in Rheumatoid Arthritis Database and Repository registry. The test set included those with good response or no response to tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors at 14 weeks by European League Against Rheumatism criteria. The validation set included subjects with good, moderate or no response at 12 weeks. Total serum type I IFN activity, IFN-α and IFN-β activity were measured using a functional reporter cell assay. Results In the test set, an increased ratio of IFN-β to IFN-α (IFN-β/α activity ratio) in pretreatment serum associated with lack of response to TNF inhibition (p=0.013). Anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody titre and class of TNF inhibitor did not influence this relationship. A receiver–operator curve supported a ratio of 1.3 as the optimal cut-off. In the validation set, subjects with an IFN-β/α activity ratio >1.3 were significantly more likely to have non-response than good response (OR=6.67, p=0.018). The test had 77% specificity and 45% sensitivity for prediction of non-response compared with moderate or good response. Meta-analysis of test and validation sets confirmed strong predictive capacity of IFN-β/α activity ratio (p=0.005). Conclusions Increased pretreatment serum IFN-β/α ratio strongly associated with non-response to TNF inhibition. This study supports further investigation of serum type I IFN in predicting outcome of TNF inhibition in RA.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients frequently have high circulating tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) levels. We explored circulating TNF-α levels in SLE families to determine whether high levels of TNF-α were clustered in a heritable pattern. We measured TNF-α in 242 SLE patients, 361 unaffected family members, 23 unaffected spouses of SLE patients, and 62 unrelated healthy controls. Familial correlations and relative recurrence risk rates for the high TNF-α trait were assessed. SLE-affected individuals had the highest TNF-α levels, and TNF-α was significantly higher in unaffected first degree relatives than healthy unrelated subjects (P = 0.0025). No Mendelian patterns were observed, but 28.4% of unaffected first degree relatives of SLE patients had high TNF-α levels, resulting in a first degree relative recurrence risk of 4.48 (P = 2.9 × 10−5). Interestingly, the median TNF-α value in spouses was similar to that of the first degree relatives. Concordance of the TNF-α trait (high versus low) in SLE patients and their spouses was strikingly high at 78.2%. These data support a role for TNF-α in SLE pathogenesis, and TNF-α levels may relate with heritable factors. The high degree of concordance in SLE patients and their spouses suggests that environmental factors may also play a role in the observed familial aggregation.

The protracted diagnostic period and variable disease presentation not only complicate diagnosing SLE but also the epidemiologic study of it. Coupled with the remitting and relapsing nature of the disease and the challenges in managing it, clinical research in lupus requires careful attention to study design, control selection, temporality, and many often overlooked issues in the analysis phase. Between "big data" and the impressive advances in the basic sciences, it is tempting to either oversimplify methods to take advantage of "big data" or overcomplicate because the problem itself is complicated. As we revisit the building blocks of epidemiologic research, we will uncover opportunities to move epidemiology and clinical research forward in SLE. Why do we care about effect modification and what is it? Why can we not just adjust for everything that we want to? And perhaps, most importantly, going back to the very beginning and asking ourselves: does this matter? During this talk we will discuss issues relating to case identification methods, potential biases associated with control selection, and return to the basics of epidemiologic research. Although we shall discuss these issues in the context of environmental (nongenetic) factors, these concerns extend across the worlds of observational data analysis, can impact randomized trials, and are relevant for all types of exposures and outcomes. A2Is prevention of systemic lupus erythematosus a goal? Nancy J Olsen Background: Prevention of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) presents many challenges. By contrast, prevention of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is relatively straightforward: an infective agent has been identified, risk behaviors are well-delineated, antiviral therapeutics are highly effective and neonates have been apparently cured. Lupus is a more complex disease, with a significant but incompletely defined genetic component, widely heterogeneous manifestations and major gaps in knowledge about pathogenesis. Methods: The characteristic features of SLE can be exploited in the quest for preventive strategies. One of these is the presence of a latent phase during which expressed autoantibodies are increasing in number and complexity prior to the onset of clinical symptoms. This offers a path to the development of screening blood tests that would be cost-effective and generally acceptable to subjects. ANA alone is clearly not sufficient to establish risk, as it is highly prevalent in the healthy population. Alternatively, a panel of autoantibodies, possibly combined with cytokines and gene expression levels, might be useful. The skewed demographics of SLE can also be exploited, including the higher prevalence in females, firstdegree relatives and individuals < 40 years old, permitting focus on those who are most likely to be at risk. Results: A composite index, with demographics and multiplex blood autoantibody profiles, has been proposed. This index showed statistically significant correlation with progression of disease in a small prospective ...