The increasing interest in dynamic models and in particular the development of the Dynamic GTAP model at the Center for Global Trade Analysis has highlighted the need for the development of a baseline scenario depicting how the world economy might be expected the change over the next 20 years. The purpose of this paper is to describe in detail the baseline scenario developed for the Dynamic GTAP model (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2000) and the GTAP data base (Dimaranan and McDougall, 2005).In the dynamic GTAP model the policy experiment of interest is compared against a counterfactual baseline scenario. The baseline scenario should reflect as closely as possible the changes expected to occur in the world economy, excluding the particular policy of interest. In this baseline we examine the expected changes in macro economic variables such as the growth of real GDP, capital, skilled and unskilled labour etc.While there is a tendency in this paper to speak of the Dynamic GTAP baseline scenario, it should be understood that in practice each baseline is likely to be unique, incorporating those elements of a baseline which are most relevant to the actual policy question being examined.There are, however, certain key variables which form the basis of most baseline scenarios, it is with these variables that the focus of this paper lies. Despite the fact that baseline scenario's will differ, there are significant benefits to be gained, in terms of time-saved and comparability of results, from sharing a common set of forecasts for these variables.The paper may also refer to the baseline program. This is the program developed to calculate the growth rates of the macro variables and then aggregates these shocks for use with a GTAP data aggregation.
Export growth, Terms of trade, China, India, General equilibrium, F11, F12, F43, F47,
This paper analyzes the impact of continued rapid, growth in china on her trading partners using a multiregion, applied general equili,brium model. con_ trary to conuentional wisdom, we find that most deueloping countries benefit from china's growth. Product dffirentiation plays a key role in this flnding. systematic analysis of these welfare gains shows that, as exfected,, simple terms of trade calculations based on net trade positions and aaerage world price changes Predict a loss for the deueloping countries. Howeaer, with the exceptions of south Asia and rhailand, this /oss l's oaershadowed, by a positiue rnnue_
This paper aims to shed light on the potential interests of developing countries in reforms to domestic support for agriculture in the OECD economies. In order to accomplish this goal, we begin by reviewing the literature on the impacts of domestic support on key variables, including farm income, in the OECD economies themselves.We then proceed to revise the standard GTAP model of global trade, based on recent work at the OECD, in order to better capture these impacts. This work at OECD and analytical results derived by Hertel (1989) suggest the possibility of policy reinstrumentation, whereby farm income is stabilized in the face of cuts to overall support levels by shifting the mix of subsidies away from the more trade-distorting instruments which also tend to be ineffective tools for boosting farm incomes.We conclude that developing countries will be well advised to focus their efforts on improved market access to the OECD economies, while permitting these wealthy economies to continue -indeed even increase -direct support payments. Provided these increased payments are not linked to output or variable inputs, the trade-distorting effects are likely to be small, and they can be a rather effective way of offsetting the potential losses that would otherwise be sustained by OECD farmers. This type of policy reinstrumentation will increase the probability that such reforms will be deemed politically acceptable in the OECD member economies, while simultaneously increasing the likelihood that such reforms will also be beneficial to the developing economies.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.