High-throughput sequencing data have greatly improved our ability to understand the processes that contribute to current biodiversity patterns. The "vanishing refuge" diversification model is speculated for the coastal forests of eastern Africa, whereby some taxa have persisted and diversified between forest refugia, while others have switched to becoming generalists also present in non-forest habitats. Complex arrangements of geographical barriers (hydrology and topography) and ecological gradients between forest and non-forest habitats may have further influenced the region's biodiversity, but elucidation of general diversification processes has been limited by lack of suitable data. Here, we explicitly test alternative diversification modes in the coastal forests using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms, mtDNA, spatial and environmental data for three forest (Arthroleptis xenodactyloides, Leptopelis flavomaculatus and Afrixalus sylvaticus) and four generalist (Afrixalus fornasini, A. delicatus, Leptopelis concolor and Leptopelis argenteus) amphibians. Multiple analyses provide insight about divergence times, spatial population structure, dispersal barriers, environmental stability and demographic history. We reveal highly congruent intra-specific diversity and population structure across taxa, with most divergences occurring during the late Pliocene and Pleistocene. Although stability models support the existence of some forest refugia, dispersal barriers and demographic models point towards idiosyncratic diversification modes across taxa. We identify a consistent role for riverine barriers in the diversification of generalist taxa, but mechanisms of diversification are more complex for forest taxa and potentially include topographical barriers, forest refugia and ecological gradients. Our work demonstrates the complexity of diversification processes in this region, which vary between forest and generalist taxa, but also for ecologically similar species with shared population boundaries.

Aims To quantify the spatial distribution of amphibian phylogenetic endemism (PE), an indicator of potential refugia, to test PE for correlations with current and historical environmental predictors, and to evaluate the effectiveness of current protected areas at conserving evolutionary history. Location Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa (CFEA) and the adjacent low‐elevation Eastern Afromontane (EA). Methods We integrated new and existing spatial and phylogenetic data to map PE for almost the full amphibian assemblage (41 of 55 species), including 35 intraspecific lineages from several species and complexes showing high phylogeographic structure. Using spatial and non‐spatial regressive models, we tested whether PE can be predicted by measures of Quaternary climate change, forest stability, topographic heterogeneity and current climate. PE results were intersected with the protected area network to evaluate current conservation effectiveness. Results We detect refugia in Tanzania and coastal Kenya previously identified as CFEA centres of endemism but also new areas (lowland Tanga region and Pangani river, Zaraninge forest, Mafia island, Matumbi hills). Results show that refugia for amphibians (high PE) are located in areas with long‐term Quaternary climate stability and benign current climate (high precipitation of driest quarter, high annual precipitation), with climatically unstable areas demonstrating low PE. Conservation analyses revealed that ten PE hotspots account for over 25% of the total PE, but only small parts of these areas are under conservation protection. Main Conclusions Utilizing cryptic diversity from novel phylogeographic data and distribution modelling improves our understanding of endemism patterns, with climate stability being strongly correlated with the distribution of PE. Our analyses point towards high PE areas being refugia, which require an urgent need to consolidate protected areas within centres of endemism in this highly threatened biodiversity hotspot.

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