Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

Stable isotope data from waters of lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica are presented in order to establish the climatic history of this region over the past two millennia. New data from Lake Fryxell and Lake Hoare in Toylor Valley, along with previously published data from Lake Vanda, Wright Valley and Lake Bonney, Taylor Valley are used to infer the recent climatic history of MDV. Lakes Vanda, Fryxell and Bonney appear to have lost their ice covers and evaporated to small, hypersaline ponds by 1000 to ~1200 yr BP. Lake Hoare either desiccated or did not exist prior to 1200 yr BP. These data indicate a major lowering of lake level prior to ~1000 yr BP, followed by a warmer and/or more humid climate since then.

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