BackgroundThere is currently conflicting evidence surrounding the effects of obesity on postoperative outcomes. Previous studies have found obesity to be associated with adverse events, but others have found no association. The aim of this study was to determine whether increasing body mass index (BMI) is an independent risk factor for development of major postoperative complications.MethodsThis was a multicentre prospective cohort study across the UK and Republic of Ireland. Consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal surgery over a 4‐month interval (October–December 2014) were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome was the 30‐day major complication rate (Clavien–Dindo grade III–V). BMI was grouped according to the World Health Organization classification. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to adjust for patient, operative and hospital‐level effects, creating odds ratios (ORs) and 95 per cent confidence intervals (c.i.).ResultsOf 7965 patients, 2545 (32·0 per cent) were of normal weight, 2673 (33·6 per cent) were overweight and 2747 (34·5 per cent) were obese. Overall, 4925 (61·8 per cent) underwent elective and 3038 (38·1 per cent) emergency operations. The 30‐day major complication rate was 11·4 per cent (908 of 7965). In adjusted models, a significant interaction was found between BMI and diagnosis, with an association seen between BMI and major complications for patients with malignancy (overweight: OR 1·59, 95 per cent c.i. 1·12 to 2·29, P = 0·008; obese: OR 1·91, 1·31 to 2·83, P = 0·002; compared with normal weight) but not benign disease (overweight: OR 0·89, 0·71 to 1·12, P = 0·329; obese: OR 0·84, 0·66 to 1·06, P = 0·147).ConclusionOverweight and obese patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal malignancy are at increased risk of major postoperative complications compared with those of normal weight.
To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.
Introduction Adaptation is vital to ensure successful healthcare recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hand trauma represents the most common acute emergency department presentation internationally. This study prospectively evaluates the COVID-19 related patient risk, when undergoing management within one of the largest specialist tertiary referral centres in Europe, which rapidly implemented national COVID-19 safety guidelines. Materials and methods A prospective cohort study was undertaken in all patients referred to the integrated hand trauma service, during the UK COVID-19 pandemic peak (April–May 2020); all were evaluated for 30-day COVID-19 related death. Random selection was undertaken for patients with hand trauma who either underwent non-operative (control group) or operative (surgery group) management; these groups were prospectively followed-up within a controlled cohort study design and telephoned at 30 days following first intervention (control group) or postoperatively (surgery group). Results Of 731 referred patients (566 operations), there were no COVID-19 related deaths. Both groups were matched for sex, age, ethnicity, body mass index, comorbidities, smoking, preoperative/first assessment COVID-19 symptoms, pre- and postoperative/first assessment isolation and positive COVID-19 contact (p > 0.050). There were no differences in high service satisfaction (10/10 compared with 10/10; p = 0.067) and treatment outcome (10/10 compared with 10/10; p = 0.961) scores, postoperative/first assessment symptoms (1%, 1/100 compared with 0.8%, 2/250; p = 1.000) or proportion of positive tests (7.1%, 1/14 compared with 2.2%, 2/92; p = 0.349), between the control (n = 100) and surgery (n = 250) groups. Conclusion These data support continued and safe service provision and no increased risk to patients who require surgical management. Such findings are vital for healthcare providers when considering service adaptations to reinstate patient treatment.
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