Background: The advent of effective adjuvant therapies for patients with resected melanoma has highlighted the need to stratify patients based on risk of relapse given the cost and toxicities associated with treatment. Here we assessed circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) to predict and monitor relapse in resected stage III melanoma.Patients and methods: Somatic mutations were identified in 99/133 (74%) patients through tumor tissue sequencing. Personalized droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) assays were used to detect known mutations in 315 prospectively collected plasma samples from mutation-positive patients. External validation was performed in a prospective independent cohort (n ¼ 29).Results: ctDNA was detected in 37 of 99 (37%) individuals. In 81 patients who did not receive adjuvant therapy, 90% of patients with ctDNA detected at baseline and 100% of patients with ctDNA detected at the postoperative timepoint relapsed at a median follow up of 20 months. ctDNA detection predicted patients at high risk of relapse at baseline [relapse-free survival (RFS) hazard ratio (HR) 2.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-5.6; P ¼ 0.002] and postoperatively (HR 10; 95% CI 4.3-24; P < 0.001). ctDNA detection at baseline [HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.3-5.7; P ¼ 0.003 and postoperatively (HR 11; 95% CI 4.3-27; P < 0.001] was also associated with inferior distant metastasisfree survival (DMFS). These findings were validated in the independent cohort. ctDNA detection remained an independent predictor of RFS and DMFS in multivariate analyses after adjustment for disease stage and BRAF mutation status. Conclusion:Baseline and postoperative ctDNA detection in two independent prospective cohorts identified stage III melanoma patients at highest risk of relapse and has potential to inform adjuvant therapy decisions.

Purpose Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) allows noninvasive disease monitoring across a range of malignancies. In metastatic melanoma, the extent to which ctDNA reflects changes in metabolic disease burden assessed by 18F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) is unknown. We assessed the role of ctDNA analysis in combination with FDG-PET to monitor tumor burden and genomic heterogeneity throughout treatment. Patients and Methods We performed a comprehensive analysis of serial ctDNA and FDG-PET in 52 patients who received systemic therapy for metastatic melanoma. Next-generation sequencing and digital polymerase chain reaction were used to analyze plasma samples from the cohort. Results ctDNA levels were monitored across patients with mutant BRAF, NRAS, and BRAF/NRAS wild type disease. Mutant BRAF and NRAS ctDNA levels correlated closely with changes in metabolic disease burden throughout treatment. TERT promoter mutant ctDNA levels also paralleled changes in tumor burden, which provide an alternative marker for disease monitoring. Of note, subcutaneous and cerebral disease sites were not well represented in plasma. Early changes in ctDNA and metabolic disease burden were important indicators of treatment response. Patients with an early decrease in ctDNA post-treatment had improved progression-free survival compared with patients in whom ctDNA levels remained unchanged or increased over time (hazard ratio, 2.6; P = .05). ctDNA analysis contributed key molecular information through the identification of putative resistance mechanisms to targeted therapy. A detailed comparison of the genomic architecture of plasma and multiregional tumor biopsy specimens at autopsy revealed the ability of ctDNA to comprehensively capture genomic heterogeneity across multiple disease sites. Conclusion The findings highlight the powerful role of ctDNA in metastatic melanoma as a complementary modality to functional imaging that allows real-time monitoring of both tumor burden and genomic changes throughout therapy.

Although melanoma is initiated by acquisition of point mutations and limited focal copy number alterations in melanocytes-of-origin, the nature of genetic changes that characterise lethal metastatic disease is poorly understood. Here, we analyze the evolution of human melanoma progressing from early to late disease in 13 patients by sampling their tumours at multiple sites and times. Whole exome and genome sequencing data from 88 tumour samples reveals only limited gain of point mutations generally, with net mutational loss in some metastases. In contrast, melanoma evolution is dominated by whole genome doubling and large-scale aneuploidy, in which widespread loss of heterozygosity sculpts the burden of point mutations, neoantigens and structural variants even in treatment-naïve and primary cutaneous melanomas in some patients. These results imply that dysregulation of genomic integrity is a key driver of selective clonal advantage during melanoma progression.