We consider the full Solar System including (1) Ceres and some of the main asteroids, (2) Pallas, (4) Vesta, (7) Iris, and (324) Bamberga. We show that close encounters among these small bodies induce strong chaotic behavior in their orbits and in those of many asteroids that are much more chaotic than previously thought. Even if space missions will allow very precise measurements of the positions of Ceres and Vesta, their motion will be unpredictable over 400 kyr. As a result, it will never be possible to recover the precise evolution of the Earth's eccentricity beyond 60 Myr. Ceres and Vesta thus appear to be the main limiting factors for any precise reconstruction of the Earth orbit, which is fundamental for the astronomical calibration of geological timescales. Moreover, collisions of Ceres and Vesta are possible, with a collision probability of 0.2% per Gyr.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.