SummaryBackgroundThe population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future.MethodsWe constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs—including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies—and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030.FindingsOur model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug–drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens.InterpretationThe profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based screening and monitoring protocols to ensure continued high-quality care. These findings are based on a large dataset of HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands, but we believe that the overall patterns will be repeated elsewhere in Europe and North America. The implications of such a trend for care of HIV-infected patients in high-burden countries in Africa could present a particular challenge.FundingMedical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rush Foundation, and Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.

Summary Background Combination antiretroviral therapy has led to significant increases in survival and quality of life, but at a population-level the effect on life expectancy is not well understood. Our objective was to compare changes in mortality and life expectancy among HIV-positive individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy. Methods The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration is a multinational collaboration of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America. Patients were included in this analysis if they were aged 16 years or over and antiretroviral-naive when initiating combination therapy. We constructed abridged life tables to estimate life expectancies for individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996–99, 2000–02, and 2003–05, stratified by sex, baseline CD4 cell count, and history of injecting drug use. The average number of years remaining to be lived by those treated with combination antiretroviral therapy at 20 and 35 years of age was estimated. Potential years of life lost from 20 to 64 years of age and crude death rates were also calculated. Findings 18 587, 13 914, and 10 854 eligible patients initiated combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996–99, 2000–02, and 2003–05, respectively. 2056 (4·7%) deaths were observed during the study period, with crude death rates decreasing from 16·3 deaths per 1000 person-years in 1996–99 to 10·0 deaths per 1000 person-years in 2003–05. Potential years of life lost per 1000 person-years also decreased over the same time, from 366 to 189 years. Life expectancy at age 20 years increased from 36·1 (SE 0·6) years to 49·4 (0·5) years. Women had higher life expectancies than men. Patients with presumed transmission via injecting drug use had lower life expectancies than those from other transmission groups (32·6 [1·1] years vs 44·7 [0·3] years in 2003–05). Life expectancy was lower in patients with lower baseline CD4 counts than in those with higher baseline counts (32·4 [1·1] years for CD4 cell counts below 100 cells per μL vs 50·4 [0·4] years for counts of 200 cells per μL or more). Interpretation Life expectancy in HIV-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy increased between 1996 and 2005, although there is considerable variability in subgroups of patients. However, the average number of years remaining to be lived at age 20 years was about two-thirds of that in the general population in these countries.

SummaryBackgroundHealth care for people living with HIV has improved substantially in the past two decades. Robust estimates of how these improvements have affected prognosis and life expectancy are of utmost importance to patients, clinicians, and health-care planners. We examined changes in 3 year survival and life expectancy of patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1996 and 2013.MethodsWe analysed data from 18 European and North American HIV-1 cohorts. Patients (aged ≥16 years) were eligible for this analysis if they had started ART with three or more drugs between 1996 and 2010 and had at least 3 years of potential follow-up. We estimated adjusted (for age, sex, AIDS, risk group, CD4 cell count, and HIV-1 RNA at start of ART) all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for the first year after ART initiation and the second and third years after ART initiation in four calendar periods (1996–99, 2000–03 [comparator], 2004–07, 2008–10). We estimated life expectancy by calendar period of initiation of ART.Findings88 504 patients were included in our analyses, of whom 2106 died during the first year of ART and 2302 died during the second or third year of ART. Patients starting ART in 2008–10 had lower all-cause mortality in the first year after ART initiation than did patients starting ART in 2000–03 (adjusted HR 0·71, 95% CI 0·61–0·83). All-cause mortality in the second and third years after initiation of ART was also lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 than in those who started in 2000–03 (0·57, 0·49–0·67); this decrease was not fully explained by viral load and CD4 cell count at 1 year. Rates of non-AIDS deaths were lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 (vs 2000–03) in the first year (0·48, 0·34–0·67) and second and third years (0·29, 0·21–0·40) after initiation of ART. Between 1996 and 2010, life expectancy in 20-year-old patients starting ART increased by about 9 years in women and 10 years in men.InterpretationEven in the late ART era, survival during the first 3 years of ART continues to improve, which probably reflects transition to less toxic antiretroviral drugs, improved adherence, prophylactic measures, and management of comorbidity. Prognostic models and life expectancy estimates should be updated to account for these improvements.FundingUK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, EU EDCTP2 programme.

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