Highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza A viruses occasionally infect humans, but currently do not transmit efficiently among humans. The viral haemagglutinin (HA) protein is a known host range determinant since it mediates virus binding to host-specific cellular receptors1–3. Here, we therefore assessed the molecular changes in HA that would allow an H5 HA-possessing virus to transmit among mammals. We identified a reassortant virus with H5 HA possessing four mutations in a 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus backbone capable of droplet transmission in a ferret model. The transmissible H5 reassortant virus preferentially recognized human-type receptors, replicated efficiently in ferrets, caused lung lesions and weight loss, but it was not highly pathogenic and did not cause mortality. These results suggest that H5 HA can convert to an HA that supports efficient viral transmission in mammals. However, we do not know whether the four mutations in the H5 HA identified in this study would render a wholly avian H5N1 virus transmissible. The genetic origin of the remaining seven viral genes may also critically contribute to transmissibility in mammals. Nevertheless, as H5N1 viruses continue to evolve and infect humans, receptor-binding variants of H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential, including avian-human reassortant viruses as tested here, may emerge. Our findings emphasize the need for pandemic preparedness for H5 HA-possessing viruses and will help individuals conducting surveillance in regions with circulating H5N1 viruses to recognize key residues that predict the pandemic potential of isolates, which will inform the development, production, and distribution of effective countermeasures.

Summary Avian influenza A viruses rarely infect humans, but if they do and transmit among them, worldwide outbreaks (pandemics) can result. The recent sporadic infections of humans in China with a previously unrecognized avian influenza A virus of the H7N9 subtype (A(H7N9)) have caused concern due to the appreciable case fatality rate associated with these infections (>25%), potential instances of human-to-human transmission1, and the lack of pre-existing immunity among humans to viruses of this subtype. Here, we therefore characterized two early human A(H7N9) isolates, A/Anhui/1/2013 and A/Shanghai/1/2013 (H7N9; hereafter referred to as Anhui/1 and Shanghai/1, respectively). In mice, Anhui/1 and Shanghai/1 were more pathogenic than a control avian H7N9 virus (A/duck/Gunma/466/2011; H7N9; Dk/GM466) and a representative pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus (A/California/04/2009; H1N1; CA04). Anhui/1, Shanghai/1, and Dk/GM466 replicated well in the nasal turbinates of ferrets. In nonhuman primates (NHPs), Anhui/1 and Dk/GM466 replicated efficiently in the upper and lower respiratory tracts, whereas the replicative ability of conventional human influenza viruses is typically restricted to the upper respiratory tract of infected primates. By contrast, Anhui/1 did not replicate well in miniature pigs upon intranasal inoculation. Most critically, Anhui/1 transmitted via respiratory droplets in one of three pairs of ferrets. Glycan arrays demonstrated that Anhui/1, Shanghai/1, and A/Hangzhou/1/2013 (a third human A(H7N9) virus tested in this assay) bind to human virus-type receptors, a property that may be critical for virus transmissibility in ferrets. Anhui/1 was less sensitive than a pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus to neuraminidase inhibitors, although both viruses were equally susceptible to an experimental antiviral polymerase inhibitor. The robust replicative ability in mice, ferrets, and NHPs and the limited transmissibility in ferrets of Anhui/1 suggest that A(H7N9) viruses have pandemic potential.

h Two ferret-adapted H5N1 viruses capable of respiratory droplet transmission have been reported with mutations in the hemagglutinin receptor-binding site and stalk domains. Glycan microarray analysis reveals that both viruses exhibit a strong shift toward binding to "human-type" ␣2-6 sialosides but with notable differences in fine specificity. Crystal structure analysis further shows that the stalk mutation causes no obvious perturbation of the receptor-binding pocket, consistent with its impact on hemagglutinin stability without affecting receptor specificity.

Influenza viruses mutate frequently, necessitating constant updates of vaccine viruses. To establish experimental approaches that may complement the current vaccine strain selection process, we selected antigenic variants from human H1N1 and H3N2 influenza virus libraries possessing random mutations in the globular head of the haemagglutinin protein (which includes the antigenic sites) by incubating them with human and/or ferret convalescent sera to human H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. Further, we selected antigenic escape variants from human viruses treated with convalescent sera and from mice that had been previously immunized against human influenza viruses. Our pilot studies with past influenza viruses identified escape mutants that were antigenically similar to variants that emerged in nature, establishing the feasibility of our approach. Our studies with contemporary human influenza viruses identified escape mutants before they caused an epidemic in 2014–2015. This approach may aid in the prediction of potential antigenic escape variants and the selection of future vaccine candidates before they become widespread in nature.

Summary Wild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited higher pathogenicity in mice and ferrets than an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential.