The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system provides an unprecedented opportunity to study terrestrial exoplanet evolution with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and ground-based observatories. Since M dwarf planets likely experience extreme volatile loss, the TRAPPIST-1 planets may have highly evolved, possibly uninhabitable atmospheres. We used a versatile, 1D terrestrial planet climate model with line-by-line radiative transfer and mixing length convection (VPL Climate) coupled to a terrestrial photochemistry model to simulate environmental states for the TRAPPIST-1 planets. We present equilibrium climates with self-consistent atmospheric compositions and observational discriminants of postrunaway, desiccated, 10–100 bar O2- and CO2-dominated atmospheres, including interior outgassing, as well as for water-rich compositions. Our simulations show a range of surface temperatures, most of which are not habitable, although an aqua planet TRAPPIST-1 e could maintain a temperate surface given Earth-like geological outgassing and CO2. We find that a desiccated TRAPPIST-1 h  may produce habitable surface temperatures beyond the maximum greenhouse distance. Potential observational discriminants for these atmospheres in transmission and emission spectra are influenced by photochemical processes and aerosol formation and include collision-induced oxygen absorption (O2–O2), and O3,  CO, SO2, H2O, and CH4 absorption features, with transit signals of up to 200 ppm. Our simulated transmission spectra are consistent with K2, Hubble Space Telescope, and Spitzer observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets. For several terrestrial atmospheric compositions, we find that TRAPPIST-1 b is unlikely to produce aerosols. These results can inform JWST observation planning and data interpretation for the TRAPPIST-1 system and other M dwarf terrestrial planets.

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will offer the first opportunity to characterize terrestrial exoplanets with sufficient precision to identify high mean molecular weight atmospheres, and TRAPPIST-1's seven known transiting Earth-sized planets are particularly favorable targets. To assist community preparations for JWST observations, we use simulations of plausible post-ocean-loss and habitable environments for the TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets, and test simulations of all bright object time series spectroscopy modes and all MIRI photometry filters to determine optimal observing strategies for atmospheric detection and characterization using both transmission and emission observations. We find that transmission spectroscopy with NIRSpec Prism is optimal for detecting terrestrial, CO 2 containing atmospheres, potentially in fewer than 10 transits for all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets, if they lack high altitude aerosols. If the TRAPPIST-1 planets possess Venus-like H 2 SO 4 aerosols, up to 12 times more transits may be required to detect an atmosphere. We present optimal instruments and observing modes for the detection of individual molecular species in a given terrestrial atmosphere and an observational strategy for discriminating between evolutionary states. We find that water may be prohibitively difficult to detect in both Venus-like and habitable atmospheres due to its presence lower in the atmosphere where transmission spectra are less sensitive. Although the presence of biogenic O 2 and O 3 will be extremely challenging to detect, abiotically produced oxygen from past ocean loss may be detectable for all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets via O 2 -O 2 collisionally-induced absorption at 1.06 and 1.27 µm, or via NIR O 3 features for the outer three planets. Our results constitute a suite of hypotheses on the nature and detectability of highly-evolved terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres that may be tested with JWST.

We describe how environmental context can help determine whether oxygen (O2) detected in extrasolar planetary observations is more likely to have a biological source. Here we provide an in-depth, interdisciplinary example of O2 biosignature identification and observation, which serves as the prototype for the development of a general framework for biosignature assessment. Photosynthetically generated O2 is a potentially strong biosignature, and at high abundance, it was originally thought to be an unambiguous indicator for life. However, as a biosignature, O2 faces two major challenges: (1) it was only present at high abundance for a relatively short period of Earth's history and (2) we now know of several potential planetary mechanisms that can generate abundant O2 without life being present. Consequently, our ability to interpret both the presence and absence of O2 in an exoplanetary spectrum relies on understanding the environmental context. Here we examine the coevolution of life with the early Earth's environment to identify how the interplay of sources and sinks may have suppressed O2 release into the atmosphere for several billion years, producing a false negative for biologically generated O2. These studies suggest that planetary characteristics that may enhance false negatives should be considered when selecting targets for biosignature searches. We review the most recent knowledge of false positives for O2, planetary processes that may generate abundant atmospheric O2 without a biosphere. We provide examples of how future photometric, spectroscopic, and time-dependent observations of O2 and other aspects of the planetary environment can be used to rule out false positives and thereby increase our confidence that any observed O2 is indeed a biosignature. These insights will guide and inform the development of future exoplanet characterization missions. Key Words: Biosignatures—Oxygenic photosynthesis—Exoplanets—Planetary atmospheres. Astrobiology 18, 630–662.