Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.

Summary1. While environmental filters are well-known factors influencing community assembly, the extent to which these modify species functions, and entire ecosystem processes, is poorly understood. 2. Focusing on a high-diversity system, we ask whether environmental filtering has ecosystemwide effects beyond community assembly. We characterise a coral reef herbivorous fish community for swimming performance based on ten functional traits derived from fish morphology. We then investigate whether wave exposure modifies the functional make-up of herbivory, and the absolute and relative feeding frequency of distinct feeding functional groups. 3. Herbivorous fish species conformed to either laterally compressed or fusiform body plans, which differ in their morphological design to minimise drag. High wave exposure selectively limited the feeding function of the deepest body shapes with highest caudal thrust efficiency, and favoured fusiform bodies irrespective of pectoral fin shape. 4. Traditionally recognised herbivore feeding functional groups (i.e. grazers-detritivores and scrapers-small excavators) differed in swimming performance, and in their capacity to feed consistently across levels of wave exposure. We therefore emphasise the distinctness of their ecological niche and functional complementarity. 5. Species within the same feeding functional group also had contrasting responses to wave exposure. We thereby reveal a further ecological dimension of niche partitioning, and reiterate the risk of assuming functional redundancy among species with a common feeding mode. 6. Contrasting responses of species within feeding functional roles (i.e. response diversity) allowed the preservation of critical trophic functions throughout the gradient (e.g. macroalgal browsing), and likely explained why overall levels of herbivory were robust to filtering. Whether ecosystem functioning will remain robust under the additive effects of environmental stress and human-induced disturbances remains to be tested.