Soil carbon sequestration can be estimated from field to global scale using numerical 9 soil/ecosystem models. In this chapter we describe the structure and development of models 10 that have been widely used at international level, from simple models that include carbon 11 only to model that include descriptions of the dynamics of a range of nutrients. We also 12 present examples of the application from field to global scale of different models to answer a 13 range of different questions on the impact of land use and climate changes on soil carbon sequestration. A full discussion of the impact of soil carbon modelling on political and socio-economical aspects is included to emphasise the need of a close interaction between model developers, researchers, land owners/users and policy makers to ensure the development of robust approaches to climate change, food security and soil protection. Whatever type of models are used to meet future challenges, it is important that they continue to be tested using appropriate data, and that they are used in regions and for land uses where they have been developed and validated.

The use of limited organic resources to build resilience to drought in semi-arid regions was investigated using systems modelling. The study focused on Halaba in Ethiopia, drawing on biophysical and socioeconomic data obtained from a survey of farms before, during and after the 2015/16 El Niño event. Using a simplified weather dataset to remove noise from weather fluctuations, a ten yearly El Niño was demonstrated to cause significant long-term degradation of soil, reducing crop yields by 9%-14% and soil carbon by 0.5%-4.1%; more frequent droughts would increase this impact. Farmers in Halaba usually apply manures to soils untreated. Counteracting the impact of El Niño on soil degradation is possible by increasing application of untreated manure, but would result in a small net cost due to loss of dung as fuel. By composting manure its recalcitrance increases, allowing soil degradation to be counteracted without cost. The best option investigated, in terms of both food and fuel security, for households with access to water and finances needed for anaerobic digestion (500-2000 US$), is to use manure to produce biogas and then apply the nutrient-rich bioslurry residue to the soil. This will result in a significant benefit of over 5000 US$ per decade from increased crop production and saved fuel costs. However, many households are limited in water and finances; in that situation, the much cheaper pyrolysis cook-stove (50 US$) can provide similar economic benefits without the need for water. The biochar residue from pyrolysis is highly recalcitrant, but pyrolysis results in loss of nutrients, so may result in lower yields than other uses of manures. This may be countered by using biochar to capture nutrients from elsewhere in the farm, such as from animal housing or compost pits; more work is needed to quantify the impact of treated biochar on crop yields.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract