SummaryBackgroundUncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances.MethodsWe undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease.FindingsAnalyses included data for 698 782 people (52 765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8·49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2·00 (95% CI 1·83–2·19) for coronary heart disease; 2·27 (1·95–2·65) for ischaemic stroke; 1·56 (1·19–2·05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1·84 (1·59–2·13) for unclassified stroke; and 1·73 (1·51–1·98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40–59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10–12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3·90 mmol/L and 5·59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3·90–5·59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1·07 (0·97–1·18) for lower than 3·90 mmol/L; 1·11 (1·04–1·18) for 5·60–6·09 mmol/L; and 1·17 (1·08–1·26) for 6·10–6·99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors.InterpretationDiabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and non-linearly associated with risk of vascular disease.FundingBritish Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Pfizer.

Context Associations of major lipids and apolipoproteins with the risk of vascular disease have not been reliably quantified. Objective To assess major lipids and apolipoproteins in vascular risk. Design, Setting, and Participants Individual records were supplied on 302 430 people without initial vascular disease from 68 long-term prospective studies, mostly in Europe and North America. During 2.79 million person-years of follow-up, there were 8857 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 3928 coronary heart disease [CHD] deaths, 2534 ischemic strokes, 513 hemorrhagic strokes, and 2536 unclassified strokes. Main Outcome Measures Hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for several conventional factors, were calculated for 1-SD higher values: 0.52 loge triglyceride, 15 mg/dL high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), 43 mg/dL non-HDL-C, 29 mg/dL apolipoprotein AI, 29 mg/dL apolipoprotein B, and 33 mg/dL directly measured low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation and combined using meta-analysis. Results The rates of CHD per 1000 person-years in the bottom and top thirds of baseline lipid distributions, respectively, were 2.6 and 6.2 with triglyceride, 6.4 and 2.4 with HDL-C, and 2.3 and 6.7 with non-HDL-C. Adjusted HRs for CHD were 0.99 (95% CI, 0.94-1.05) with triglyceride, 0.78 (95% CI, 0.74-0.82) with HDL-C, and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.39-1.61) with non-HDL-C. Hazard ratios were at least as strong in participants who did not fast as in those who did. The HR for CHD was 0.35 (95% CI, 0.30-0.42) with a combination of 80 mg/dL lower non-HDL-C and 15 mg/dL higher HDL-C. For the subset with apolipoproteins or directly measured LDL-C, HRs were 1.50 (95% CI, 1.38-1.62) with the ratio non-HDL-C/HDL-C, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.39-1.60) with the ratio apo B/apo AI, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.06-1.91) with non-HDL-C, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.09-1.73) with directly measured LDL-C. Hazard ratios for ischemic stroke were 1.02 (95% CI, 0.94-1.11) with triglyceride, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.84-1.02) with HDL-C, and 1.12 (95% CI, 1.04-1.20) with non-HDL-C. Conclusion Lipid assessment in vascular disease can be simplified by measurement of either total and HDL cholesterol levels or apolipoproteins without the need to fast and without regard to triglyceride.

Among patients with HCV genotype 2 or 3 with or without previous treatment, including those with compensated cirrhosis, 12 weeks of treatment with sofosbuvir-velpatasvir resulted in rates of sustained virologic response that were superior to those with standard treatment with sofosbuvir-ribavirin. (Funded by Gilead Sciences; ASTRAL-2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02220998; and ASTRAL-3, NCT02201953.).

Objective To assess the association between leucocyte telomere length and risk of cardiovascular disease.Design Systematic review and meta-analysis.

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investments to support countries with greatest burden of viral hepatitis All heavily burdened countries to have fully funded elimination plans by 2019 Recognition of need to focus on high burden countries and support for national policy development (All) Funding for national elimination plans Creation of fiscal space for new programmes with costed investment programmes Adopt domestic innovative finance tools where appropriate Support national policy makers in their activity (WHO, UNITAID, NGOs) Provide international support for financing measures (UNITAID, GFATM, bilaterial donors) Prevention Ensure all WHO elimination targets addressed in plans Address operational challenges in delivery of birth dose HBV vaccine Ensure provision of harm reduction services and engage with marginalised group (e.g. prisoners, PWIDs). Ensure clear public health messages to encourage testing and treatment Support countries to decriminalise injecting drug use and ensure equitable access to services for all (NGOs, WHO, civil society) Ensure appropriate funding for HBV vaccine, including birth dose (GAVI, WHO) Support R&D into HCV vaccine development (Research funders and pharma) Testing and Models of Care Focus on substantially scaling up testing for HBV and HCV Create and evaluate simplified care pathways relevant to local setting, integrating with existing services. Promote task sharing and decentralisation of care through capacity building, training and removal of Support operational research into simplified pathways (Research funders, UNITAID) requirements for specialised prescribing Diagnostics Ensure testing is integrated into the wider healthcare system, rather than centralised facilties Ensure access to quality diagnostics through Essential Diagnostic List and prequalification (WHO, funders) Support implementation science for models of care and R&D into novel diagnostics suitable for decentralised settings. (Research funders, FIND, industry) Access to treatment Ensure all Essential Medicines for viral hepatitis are included in national programmes, with an emphasis on pan-genotypic regimens Apply comprehensive policy approach to promoting access, including compulsory licensing Ensure all essential medicines are pre-qualified and either available through voluntary licensing or Medicines Patent Pool (WHO, NGOs, civil society, funders) Support shared procurement mechanisms for treatment (PAHO) Monitor Progress National plans need clearly defined, measurable objectives Develop new indices of national progress Progress of individual countries needs to be closely monitored towards elimination goals (Polaris, WHO, Creation of Elimination Index) Develop greater capacity for advocacy in high burden regions (all) Viral hepatitis is one of the leading causes of death in the world. 96% of those deaths are due to hepatitis B and C, which are the focus of this commission. Unlike many other major diseases, the tools exist to eliminate viral hepatitis. A highly effective vaccine is available to prevent hepatitis B, and a revolution in HCV treat...

SummaryBackgroundGuidelines differ about the value of assessment of adiposity measures for cardiovascular disease risk prediction when information is available for other risk factors. We studied the separate and combined associations of body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with risk of first-onset cardiovascular disease.MethodsWe used individual records from 58 cohorts to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) per 1 SD higher baseline values (4·56 kg/m2 higher BMI, 12·6 cm higher waist circumference, and 0·083 higher waist-to-hip ratio) and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification. Serial adiposity assessments were used to calculate regression dilution ratios.ResultsIndividual records were available for 221 934 people in 17 countries (14 297 incident cardiovascular disease outcomes; 1·87 million person-years at risk). Serial adiposity assessments were made in up to 63 821 people (mean interval 5·7 years [SD 3·9]). In people with BMI of 20 kg/m2 or higher, HRs for cardiovascular disease were 1·23 (95% CI 1·17–1·29) with BMI, 1·27 (1·20–1·33) with waist circumference, and 1·25 (1·19–1·31) with waist-to-hip ratio, after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking status. After further adjustment for baseline systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol, corresponding HRs were 1·07 (1·03–1·11) with BMI, 1·10 (1·05–1·14) with waist circumference, and 1·12 (1·08–1·15) with waist-to-hip ratio. Addition of information on BMI, waist circumference, or waist-to-hip ratio to a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model containing conventional risk factors did not importantly improve risk discrimination (C-index changes of −0·0001, −0·0001, and 0·0008, respectively), nor classification of participants to categories of predicted 10-year risk (net reclassification improvement −0·19%, −0·05%, and −0·05%, respectively). Findings were similar when adiposity measures were considered in combination. Reproducibility was greater for BMI (regression dilution ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·93–0·97) than for waist circumference (0·86, 0·83–0·89) or waist-to-hip ratio (0·63, 0·57–0·70).InterpretationBMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio, whether assessed singly or in combination, do not importantly improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction in people in developed countries when additional information is available for systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and lipids.FundingBritish Heart Foundation and UK Medical Research Council.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a global public health challenge on the same scale as tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria. The International Coalition to Eliminate HBV (ICE-HBV) is a coalition of experts dedicated to accelerating the discovery of a cure for chronic hepatitis B. Following extensive consultation with more than 50 scientists from across the globe, as well as key stakeholders including people affected by HBV, we have identified gaps in our current knowledge and new strategies and tools that are required to achieve HBV cure. We believe that research must focus on the discovery of interventional strategies that will permanently reduce the number of productively infected cells or permanently silence the covalently closed circular DNA in those cells, and that will stimulate HBV-specific host immune responses which mimic spontaneous resolution of HBV infection. There is also a pressing need for the establishment of repositories of standardised HBV reagents and protocols that can be accessed by all HBV researchers throughout the world. The HBV cure research agenda outlined in this position paper will contribute markedly to the goal of eliminating HBV infection worldwide.