It has been shown that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an accurate predictor of survival in patients with liver disease without transplantation. Four recent studies carried out in the United States have demonstrated that the MELD score obtained immediately prior to transplantation is also associated with post-transplant patient survival. Our aim was to evaluate how accurately the MELD score predicts 90-day post-transplant survival in adult patients with chronic liver disease in the UK and Ireland. The UK and Ireland Liver Transplant Audit has data on all liver transplants since 1994. We studied survival of 3838 adult patients after first elective liver transplantation according to United Network for Organ Sharing categories of their MELD scores (< 10, 11 -18, 19 -24, 25 -35, >36). The overall survival at 90-days was 90.2%. The 90-day survival varied according to the United Network for Organ Sharing MELD categories (92.6%, 91.9%, 89.7%, 89.7%, and 70.8%, respectively; P < 0.01). Therefore, only those patients with a MELD score of 36 or higher (3% of the patients) had a survival that was markedly lower than the rest. As a consequence, the ability of the MELD score to discriminate between patients who were dead or alive was poor (c-statistic 0.58). Re-estimating the coefficients in the MELD regression model, even allowing for nonlinear relationships, did not improve its discriminatory ability. In conclusion, in the UK and Ireland the MELD score is significantly associated with post-transplant survival, but its predictive ability is poor. These results are in agreement with results found in the United States. Therefore, the most appropriate system to support patient selection for transplantation will be one that combines a pretransplant survival model (e.g., MELD score) with a properly devel-
Considering a patient's functional status or more general measures of a patient's health status before transplantation in addition to conventional clinical factors may help to improve our ability to predict posttransplant survival.
Biliary cirrhosis complicates some adults with cystic fibrosis (CF) and may require transplantation. Cardiorespiratory disease severity varies such that patients may require liver transplantation, heart/lung/liver (triple) grafts or may be too ill for any procedure. A 15-year experience of adults with CF-related liver disease referred for liver transplantation is presented with patient survival as outcome. Twelve patients were listed for triple grafting. Four died of respiratory disease after prolonged waits (4-171 weeks). Eight underwent transplantation (median wait 62 weeks); 5-year actuarial survival was 37.5%. Four died perioperatively; only one is alive at 8-years. Eighteen patients underwent liver transplant alone (median wait 7 weeks); 1-and 5-year actuarial survival rates were 100% and 69%. Three long-term survivors required further organ replacement (two heart/lung and one renal). Two others were turned down for heart/lung transplantation and four have significant renal impairment. Results for triple grafting were poor with unacceptable waiting times. Results for liver transplant alone were satisfactory, with acceptable waiting times and survival. However, further grafts were required and renal impairment was frequent. The policy of early liver transplantation for adults with CF with a view to subsequent heart/lung or renal transplantation needs assessment in the context of long-term outcome.
Key words: Clinical liver transplantation, cystic fibrosisAbbreviations: ATG, anti-thymocyte globulin; BMI, body mass index; CF, cystic fibrosis; CNI, calcineurin inhibitor; FEV 1 , forced expiratory volume in 1 second; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; IVC, inferior vena cava; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; TIPS, transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt; UK, United Kingdom.
Conception of the project, data analysis, interpretation of results and write up of the manuscript. Mrs Susan Charman: interpretation of results and write up of the manuscript.
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