Improving the accuracy of cash flow forecasting in the TSA is the key to fulfilling government payment obligations, minimizing the cost of maintaining the cash reserve, providing the absence of outstanding debt accumulation, and ensuring investment in various financial instruments to obtain additional income. The article describes a method for improving the accuracy of forecasting a time series composed of daily budgetary fund balances in the TSA, based on its preliminary decomposition using a discrete wavelet packet transform of the Daubechies family. This makes it possible to increase the accuracy of traditional forecasting methods from 80% to more than 96%. The decomposition level varied from one to eight to minimize the mean absolute error and improve the forecasting accuracy. Calculations of statistical tests for adequacy confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method for improving forecasting accuracy. The scientific novelty of the proposed method for improving the forecasting accuracy of time series from daily budgetary fund balances in the TSA lies in proving the need for preliminary timeseries decomposition and subsequent construction of forecasts for the obtained parts, resulting in high forecasting accuracy. The result differs significantly from traditional econometric methods (ARIMA/SARIMA), characterized by a much lower accuracy (50–80%) and a decrease in forecasting accuracy with an increase in the forecast horizon. This article is novel, as it forms a new approach to solving the problem of increasing the efficiency of using budgetary funds, associated with improving the accuracy of forecasting daily budgetary fund balance in the TSA.

Abstract. The present work deals with the stability analysis of a banking system with the structure in the form of Apollonian graph based on such characteristics of the banking system as the modularity and inhomogeneous distribution of banks by degree, on the basis of the extended mean-field Nier model (a static approach based on a simplified balance sheet of assets and liabilities of the bank) which was used to analyze the extent of the process of bankruptcy of banks after the default of one of the banks in the banking system. The obtained results of research of stability of banking systems based on the Apollonian graphs indicate that such characteristics as modularity (i.e. clustering), and the heterogeneity of banks in the structure of the model of banking systems allow them to conform «isomorphous structure» typical of the majority of real social and biological complex adaptive systems.

In this research, we applied the DEA method (data envelopment analysis) for a cross-country analysis of the comparative efficiency of government support for coal production in eight countries: The leading producers of coal and lignite, three OECD countries with developed economies (the USA, Germany, and Australia), four BRICS countries with developing economies and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, and South Africa), and Indonesia -the largest producer of coal and lignite in Southeast Asia from 2013 to 2018. An extended version of the DEA method allowed us to evaluate not only technicalities, but also price efficiency of budget support for natural gas production in the considered countries. The data for the empirical model characterizing the volume of financial support to oil producers through budgetary transfers and tax expenditures was taken from the OECD statistical base. The obtained results indicate low efficiency of state support for coal and lignite production in Russia, the industry that is responsible for the largest generation and emission of greenhouse gases. In accordance with international obligations, Russia should solve this problem. To achieve this goal, the government should legislatively limit the funding of coal projects and exclude coal projects from the sphere of credit and export agencies, development banks, and state banks.

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This research focuses on the multi-cycle production development planning for sustainable power systems to maximize the usage of renewable energy sources. The intention of this study is to offer a comprehensive review of the research on the potential of multi-cycle production development planning for the development of sustainable power systems. In pursuit of this objective, the study has incorporated a qualitative research approach to analyze the volume of data available on the research topic to delineate how multi-cycle production development planning can be used for sustainable power systems and the maximization of the use of renewable energy sources. The study also highlights the major models that can be incorporated into the multi-cycle production development planning for sustainable power systems to maximize the use of renewable energy sources. The existing literature was extracted from databases, namely, Google Scholar, EBSCOHost, and Springer. The data comprised peer-reviewed journal articles, books, and credible online sources. Lastly, the practical and theoretical relevance of the study, along with limitations and recommendations for future practitioners, is provided in the conclusion. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-11-018 Full Text: PDF