This paper applies a comprehensive tax-benefit incidence analysis to estimate the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Chile in 2013. Four results are indicative of an overall positive net effect of fiscal interventions on poverty and inequality. First, subsidies exert a positive, yet modest effect on poverty and inequality, whereas direct transfers are progressive, equalizing, and reduce the poverty headcount by 4 to 5 percentage points, depending on the poverty line used. Second, although social contributions are unequalizing
Tobacco taxes are deemed regressive, because the poorest families tend to allocate larger shares of their budget to purchase tobacco. However, as taxes also discourage tobacco use, some of the most adverse effects, including higher medical expenses, lower life expectancy at birth, added years of disability among smokers, and reduction in the quality of life, among others, would be reduced. This paper describes and simulates the effects of the tobacco tax on incomes in Chile assuming three different price-elasticity scenarios for different income deciles of the population. The results show that although increasing the price of tobacco through higher taxes generates negative income variations across all groups in a population, under a more comprehensive scenario that includes benefits through lower medical expenses and an increase in working years, the results invert, and the overall monetary effect of the taxation policy becomes positive. Moreover, the reduction in medical expenses seems to be the main driver of the increase in net incomes, because of the reduction in tobacco-related problems that require expensive treatments. Lastly, as the distributional effects of tobacco taxes are directly related to the long-term price elasticities of tobacco consumption, it would be advisable to coordinate taxation and behavioral change policies across income groups.
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
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