Abstract:In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21st century, two discrepant climate change models: the MPI-M-REMO-ECHAM5 and DMI-HIRHAM5-ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecutive days of temperatures ≥30°C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3-day heat waves will rise by 370% and after 2070 -460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model. Key wordsclimate models • heat waves • modelled air temperature • mortality • Poland Geographia Polonica 2013, 86, 4, pp. 295-311 Geographia Polonica 2013, 86, 4, 295-311 296Magdalena Kuchcik a significantly better space resolution for country-sized or regional estimations. For instance, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report summarizes data from 21 different coupled atmosphereocean global climate models -GCMs (Meehl et al. 2007). Similarly, regional projections are increasingly based on ensembles of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Over Europe, this approach has been pioneered in the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects (Christensen & Christensen 2007; Déqué 2009).One of the most possible impacts of climate change due to well documented changes in extreme weather and climate events (IPCC 2012) is a very likely (90-100% probability) increase in the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves over most land areas (in Europe the projection of those phenomena is -likely: 66-100% probability). Also there will be a virtually certain (99-100% probability) increase in the frequency and magnitude of warm days and nights on a global scale (in Europe accordingly -very likely).Heat waves are several day or longer periods of exceptionally hot weather, where there is often a sudden rise in mortality rate, particularly among those with cardiovascular disease. Above all, it is caused by excessive stress on the thermoregulatory and cardiovascular systems caused by the body's adaptation processes to high air temperature. Dilation of the blood vessels in a hot environment leads to a rise in the velocity of blood flow and pulse rate, a drop in blood pressure, a rise in blood volume and thus an overall weakening of the body. Heat waves which last for a few days lead to a decrease in haemoglobin, which carries oxygen, an increase in respiratory rate, ie pulmonary ventilation, which leads to aggravation of respiratory diseases (Klonowicz & Kozłowski 1970; Jankowiak 1976). If high air temperature is accompanied by a large inflow of direct sunlight and high vapour pressure then a dangerous increase in systolic and diastolic blood pressure can take place (Biernacki et al. 1965; Zawiślak 1997; Błażejczyk 1998).The first scientific reports on heat waves and an accompanying rise in...

NHANES III measured serum TSH, total serum T(4), antithyroperoxidase (TPOAb), and antithyroglobulin (TgAb) antibodies from a sample of 17,353 people aged > or =12 yr representing the geographic and ethnic distribution of the U.S. population. These data provide a reference for other studies of these analytes in the U.S. For the 16,533 people who did not report thyroid disease, goiter, or taking thyroid medications (disease-free population), we determined mean concentrations of TSH, T(4), TgAb, and TPOAb. A reference population of 13,344 people was selected from the disease-free population by excluding, in addition, those who were pregnant, taking androgens or estrogens, who had thyroid antibodies, or biochemical hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism. The influence of demographics on TSH, T(4), and antibodies was examined. Hypothyroidism was found in 4.6% of the U.S. population (0.3% clinical and 4.3% subclinical) and hyperthyroidism in 1.3% (0.5% clinical and 0.7% subclinical). (Subclinical hypothyroidism is used in this paper to mean mild hypothyroidism, the term now preferred by the American Thyroid Association for the laboratory findings described.) For the disease-free population, mean serum TSH was 1.50 (95% confidence interval, 1.46-1.54) mIU/liter, was higher in females than males, and higher in white non-Hispanics (whites) [1.57 (1.52-1.62) mIU/liter] than black non-Hispanics (blacks) [1.18 (1.14-1.21) mIU/liter] (P < 0.001) or Mexican Americans [1.43 (1.40-1.46) mIU/liter] (P < 0.001). TgAb were positive in 10.4 +/- 0.5% and TPOAb, in 11.3 +/- 0.4%; positive antibodies were more prevalent in women than men, increased with age, and TPOAb were less prevalent in blacks (4.5 +/- 0.3%) than in whites (12.3 +/- 0.5%) (P < 0.001). TPOAb were significantly associated with hypo or hyperthyroidism, but TgAb were not. Using the reference population, geometric mean TSH was 1.40 +/- 0.02 mIU/liter and increased with age, and was significantly lower in blacks (1.18 +/- 0.02 mIU/liter) than whites (1.45 +/- 0.02 mIU/liter) (P < 0.001) and Mexican Americans (1.37 +/- 0.02 mIU/liter) (P < 0.001). Arithmetic mean total T(4) was 112.3 +/- 0.7 nmol/liter in the disease-free population and was consistently higher among Mexican Americans in all populations. In the reference population, mean total T(4) in Mexican Americans was (116.3 +/- 0.7 nmol/liter), significantly higher than whites (110.0 +/- 0.8 nmol/liter) or blacks (109.4 +/- 0.8 nmol/liter) (P < 0.0001). The difference persisted in all age groups. In summary, TSH and the prevalence of antithyroid antibodies are greater in females, increase with age, and are greater in whites and Mexican Americans than in blacks. TgAb alone in the absence of TPOAb is not significantly associated with thyroid disease. The lower prevalence of thyroid antibodies and lower TSH concentrations in blacks need more research to relate these findings to clinical status. A large proportion of the U.S. population unknowingly have laboratory evidence of thyroid disease, which supports the usefulness of ...

Context Recent recommendations from the American Heart Association aim to improve cardiovascular health by encouraging the general population to meet 7 cardiovascular health metrics: not smoking; being physically active; having normal blood pressure, blood glucose and total cholesterol levels, and weight; and eating a healthy diet. Objective To examine time trends in cardiovascular health metrics and to estimate joint associations and population-attributable fractions of these metrics in relation to all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk.

We examined 12,026 fungal air samples (9,619 indoor samples and 2,407 outdoor samples) from 1,717 buildings located across the United States; these samples were collected during indoor air quality investigations performed from 1996 to 1998. For all buildings, both indoor and outdoor air samples were collected with an Andersen N6 sampler. The culturable airborne fungal concentrations in indoor air were lower than those in outdoor air. The fungal levels were highest in the fall and summer and lowest in the winter and spring. Geographically, the highest fungal levels were found in the Southwest, Far West, and Southeast. The most common culturable airborne fungi, both indoors and outdoors and in all seasons and regions, were Cladosporium, Penicillium, nonsporulating fungi, and Aspergillus. Stachybotrys chartarum was identified in the indoor air in 6% of the buildings studied and in the outdoor air of 1% of the buildings studied. This study provides industrial hygienists, allergists, and other public health practitioners with comparative information on common culturable airborne fungi in the United States. This is the largest study of airborne indoor and outdoor fungal species and concentrations conducted with a standardized protocol to date.

EAT CONSUMPTION HAS been associated with colorectal neoplasia in the epidemiological literature, but the strength of the association and types of meat involved have not been consistent. Few studies have evaluated long-term meat consumption or the relationship between meat consumption and the risk of rectal cancer. Studies of red meat consumption and colorectal adenoma have reported odds ratios in the range of 1.2 to 1.3. [1][2][3] Case-control studies 4-25 of colorectal cancer conducted in the United States and Europe have generally reported increased risk associated with red or processed meat intake in analyses of men, 4-9,13,14 and men and women combined, [10][11][12][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] but not in analyses that included only women. [5][6][7][8][9]13 Case-control studies [26][27][28][29][30][31][32] of colorectal cancer among Asians in the United States or Asia have more consistently reported a positive association with red, processed, or total meats.Five 33-37 of 10 33-42 US prospective studies of colorectal cancer reported positive associations with red or processed meat intake, although some as-sociations [35][36][37] did not reach statistical significance. European prospective studies [43][44][45][46][47][48][49] have generally reported no association with fresh or total meat but positive associations with cured or processed meat, 43,45,46 sausages, 47 or smoked/salted fish. 45 High consumption of poultry or fish has been inconsistently associated with higher 36,37,46 or lower 34,40,41,47,49 risk of colorectal cancer; some studies have found no association. 33,39,42,43,45,48 Only 2 prospective studies 38,49 have reported on rectal can-cer in relation to meat consumption. The results were conflicting but were limited by the small number of cases.See also pp 183 and 233.

Although case-control studies are suitable for assessing gene-environment interactions, choosing appropriate control subjects is a valid concern in these studies. The authors review three nontraditional study designs that do not include a control group: 1) the case-only study, 2) the case-parental control study, and 3) the affected relative-pair method. In case-only studies, one can examine the association between an exposure and a genotype among case subjects only. Odds ratios are interpreted as a synergy index on a multiplicative scale, with independence assumed between the exposure and the genotype. In case-parental control studies, one can compare the genotypic distribution of case subjects with the expected distribution based on parental genotypes when there is no association between genotype and disease; the effect of a genotype can be stratified according to case subjects' exposure status. In affected relative-pair studies, the distribution of alleles identical by descent between pairs of affected relatives is compared with the expected distribution based on the absence of genetic linkage between the locus and the disease; the analysis can be stratified according to exposure status. Some or all of these methods have certain limitations, including linkage disequilibrium, confounding, assumptions of Mendelian transmission, an inability to measure exposure effects directly, and the use of a multiplicative scale to test for interaction. Nevertheless, they provide important tools to assess gene-environment interaction in disease etiology.

Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

Our results indicate that the PA questionnaire in HUNT 1 is reproducible and provides a useful measure of leisure-time PA for men. The questionnaire is very short, and compared favourably with much longer instruments for assessment of more vigorous PA. It should be an appropriate tool for use in further epidemiological studies, particularly when the interest is in aspects of PA reflected in fitness or METs greater than 6.