As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

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One application of ecological niche modeling is predicting suitable areas for the establishment of invasive species. Herein, I model the fundamental niche of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogen linked to amphibian declines on several continents. Niche models were generated with the Genetic Algorithm of Rule‐Set Prediction using point distribution data of the pathogen and digital maps of environmental variables integrated in a GIS environment. The distribution of regions suitable for B. dendrobatidis in the New World is extensive and includes significant portions of: (1) Sierra Madre Occidental pine‐oak forest; (2) Sonoran and Sinaloan dry forest; (3) Veracruz moist forest; (4) Central America east from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec; (5) Caribbean Islands; (6) temperate forest in Chile and western Argentina south of latitude 30°S; (7) Andes above 1000 m of altitude in Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador; (8) eastern slopes of the Andes in Peru and Bolivia; (9) Brazilian Atlantic forest; (10) Uruguay, Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina; (11) southwestern and Madeira‐Tapajós Amazonian tropical rainforests. The regions with the highest suitability for B. dendrobatidis include habitats that contain the world's most diverse amphibian faunas. Models were built with New World localities, but also showed strong predictability for B. dendrobatidis localities in the Old World. Out of a total of 59 reported Old World localities for B. dendrobatidis, 56 occurred within regions with high predicted suitability. I also present analyses of the environmental envelope of B. dendrobatidis and discuss the implications of the results for the conservation of amphibians in the neotropics.

One of the greatest challenges for biodiversity conservation is the poor understanding of species diversity. Molecular methods have dramatically improved our ability to uncover cryptic species, but the magnitude of cryptic diversity remains unknown, particularly in diverse tropical regions such as the Amazon Basin. Uncovering cryptic diversity in amphibians is particularly pressing because amphibians are going extinct globally at an alarming rate. Here, we use an integrative analysis of two independent Amazonian frog clades, Engystomops toadlets and Hypsiboas treefrogs, to test whether species richness is underestimated and, if so, by how much. We sampled intensively in six countries with a focus in Ecuador (Engystomops: 252 individuals from 36 localities; Hypsiboas: 208 individuals from 65 localities) and combined mitochondrial DNA, nuclear DNA, morphological, and bioacoustic data to detect cryptic species. We found that in both clades, species richness was severely underestimated, with more undescribed species than described species. In Engystomops, the two currently recognized species are actually five to seven species (a 150 -250% increase in species richness); in Hypsiboas, two recognized species represent six to nine species (a 200 -350% increase). Our results suggest that Amazonian frog biodiversity is much more severely underestimated than previously thought.

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Aim We analysed elevational and microclimatic drivers of thermal tolerance diversity in a tropical mountain frog clade to test three macrophysiological predictions: less spatial variation in upper than lower thermal limits (Bretts’ heat‐invariant hypothesis); narrower thermal tolerance ranges in habitats with less variation in temperature (Janzen's climatic variability hypothesis); and higher level of heat impacts at lower elevations. Location Forest and open habitats through a 4,230‐m elevational gradient across the tropical Andes of Ecuador. Method We examined variability in critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) and thermal breadth (TB; CTmax–CTmin) in 21 species of Pristimantis frogs. Additionally, we monitored maximum and minimum temperatures at the local scale (tmax, tmin) and estimated vulnerability to acute thermal stress from heat (CTmax–tmax) and cold (tmin–CTmin), by partitioning thermal diversity into elevational and microclimatic variation. Results Our results were consistent with Brett's hypothesis: elevation promotes more variation in CTmin and tmin than in CTmax and tmax. Frogs inhabiting thermally variable open habitats have higher CTmax and tmax and greater TBs than species restricted to forest habitats, which show less climatic overlap across the elevational gradient (Janzen's hypothesis). Vulnerability to heat stress was higher in open than forest habitats and did not vary with elevation. Main conclusions We suggest a mechanistic explanation of thermal tolerance diversity in elevational gradients by including microclimatic thermal variation. We propose that the unfeasibility to buffer minimum temperatures locally may explain the rapid increase in cold tolerance (lower CTmin) with elevation. In contrast, the relative invariability in heat tolerance (CTmax) with elevation may revolve around the organisms’ habitat selection of open‐ and canopy‐buffered habitats. Secondly, on the basis of microclimatic estimates, lowland and upland species may be equally vulnerable to temperature increase, which is contrary to the pattern inferred from regional interpolated climate estimators.