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3 experiments investigated the effects on posterior probability estimates of (a) prior probabilities, amount of data, and diagnostic impact of the data; (b) payoffs; and (c) response modes. In all the experiments Ss usually behaved conservatively, i.e., the difference between their prior and posterior probability estimates was less than that prescribed by Bayes' theorem. Conservatism was unaffected by prior probabilities, remained constant as the amount of data increased, and decreased as the diagnostic value of each datum decreased. More learning occurred under payoff than under nonpayoff conditions and between-S variance was less under payoff conditions. Estimates were most nearly Bayesian under the (formally inappropriate) linear payoff, but considerable overestimation resulted; the log payoff condition yielded less conservatism than the quadratic payoff. Estimates were most nearly Bayesian when Ss estimated odds on a logarithmic scale.

<b><i>Background:</i></b> An international expert panel convened by the Independent Scientific Committee on Drugs developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model of the relative importance of different types of harm related to the use of nicotine-containing products. <b><i>Method:</i></b> The group defined 12 products and 14 harm criteria. Seven criteria represented harms to the user, and the other seven indicated harms to others. The group scored all the products on each criterion for their average harm worldwide using a scale with 100 defined as the most harmful product on a given criterion, and a score of zero defined as no harm. The group also assessed relative weights for all the criteria to indicate their relative importance. <b><i>Findings:</i></b> Weighted averages of the scores provided a single, overall score for each product. Cigarettes (overall weighted score of 100) emerged as the most harmful product, with small cigars in second place (overall weighted score of 64). After a substantial gap to the third-place product, pipes (scoring 21), all remaining products scored 15 points or less. <b><i>Interpretation:</i></b> Cigarettes are the nicotine product causing by far the most harm to users and others in the world today. Attempts to switch to non-combusted sources of nicotine should be encouraged as the harms from these products are much lower.

Abstract. Managers in both for-profit and not-for-profit organisations continually face the task of allocating resources by balancing costs, benefits and risks and gaining commitment by a wide constituency of stakeholders to those decisions. This task is complex and difficult because many options are present, benefits and risks are rarely expressed as single objectives, multiple stakeholders with different agendas compete for limited resources, individually optimal resource allocations to organisational units are rarely collectively optimal, and those dissatisfied with the decisions taken may resist implementation. We first explain three current approaches to resource allocation taken from corporate finance, operational research and decision analysis, and we identify a common mistake organisations make in allocating resources. The paper then presents a technical process, multi-criteria portfolio analysis, for balancing the conflicting elements of the problem, and a social process, decision conferencing, which engages all the key players during the modelling process, ensuring their ownership of the model and the subsequent implementation. This socio-technical process improves communication within the organisation, develops shared understanding of the portfolio and generates a sense of common purpose about those projects that will best realise the organisation's objectives. The paper concludes with lessons we have learned from actual practice.

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the specific uncertain quantities they deal with (e.g., tomorrow's high temperature). 3.A few studies have indicated that, with practice, people can learn to become somewhat better calibrated. ImplicationsSince assessed probabilities are central to a wide variety of decision problems (e.g., making intelligence estimates, assessing system reliability, projecting costs, deciding whether to acquire more information), the question of whether such probabilities are calibrated has far-reaching importance. Almost all decision analyses involve probability assessments.