Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas; Hoogeveen, Ybele

doi:10.1007/s11213-008-9104-x

Cited by 94 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Volkery et al, 2008;Berkhout et al, 2014). The method presented here differs from a conventional assessment by placing the focus on the performance of the response options (i.e.…”

Section: Methodological Learningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX

Brown

Berry

Everard

et al. 2015

Environmental Science & Policy

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A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a stress-testing method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers -aswas used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on I (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses.

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“…Volkery et al, 2008;Berkhout et al, 2014). The method presented here differs from a conventional assessment by placing the focus on the performance of the response options (i.e.…”

Section: Methodological Learningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX

Brown

Berry

Everard

et al. 2015

Environmental Science & Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…They include various types of actors ranging from scientists, researchers, scenario experts, stakeholders and at times even lay people [6,7,23]. And they bring together various forms of data, i.e., knowledge, information, assessments of and beliefs on past, present and future developments [24].…”

Section: Background: the Hybrid Character Of Integrated Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, there are empirical hints that this promise of consistency is difficult to fulfill in practice. For instance, Volkery et al [23] report from their PRELUDE project that problems of consistency occurred on two levels: With regard to consistency between different storylines 14 [ 23]. 15 Further empirical hints are provided by Schweizer and 6 Cf.…”

Section: Consistency Of Integrated Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In principle, this level of consistency refers to all thinkable different types of models, i.e., mental models of different actors or actor groups as well as conceptual and numerical models that can be compared among one group or with each other. 23 Consistency on different levels can, but does not need to, interrelate. On each level, different consistency criteria can be applied.…”

Section: Scenario Consistencymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…; 2) to assumptions on interrelations, i.e., by asking if assumptions on interrelations between scenario elements made in different alternative scenarios are consistent, i.e., do scenarios assume the same (e.g., linear or disruptive) development and the same fostering or hindering interrelation between two scenario elements? 23 To be compared with regard to their consistency, these system representations need to be accessible. This points at the linkages between scenario traceability and consistency.…”

Section: Scenario Consistencymentioning

confidence: 99%

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New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

Kosow

2015

Eur J Futures Res

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This paper proposes two criteria to assess and compare the quality of (integrated) scenarios, namely scenario traceability and scenario consistency. From a futures research perspective, both are identified as being central challenges to scenario quality. Traceability is a recognized standard of scenario communication but difficult to achieve in practice. Consistency, simultaneously a construction principle and a constitutive element of scenarios, is not easy to accomplish either. Integrated scenario methodologies, i.e., those approaches combining, e.g., 'story and simulation' (SAS), are especially challenged by both issues. In this paper, scenario traceability and scenario consistency are more precisely defined and operationalized to allow for qualitative measurement, assessment and comparisons of different (integrated) scenario methodologies and their resulting socioenvironmental scenarios. The criteria are applied empirically to new forms of integrated scenario methodologies. They serve to analyze two explorative case studies combining the systematic yet qualitative cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) with simulation. The criteria allow illuminating whether and on what dimensions and levels these new forms of integrated scenario methodologies do (or do not) support scenario consistency and scenario traceability. The empirical analysis shows that new integrated scenario methodologies combining CIB with numerical simulation present some new answers to the traceability and consistency challenges of classical SAS approaches. The application suggests that the two criteria are appropriate and useful for assessing scenario quality from an academic perspective. Still, further research is needed to understand the relation of traceability and consistency to additional quality criteria that influence the practical usefulness of scenarios from a policy advice-oriented perspective.

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Envisioning futures for climate change policy development: Scenarios use in European environmental policy institutions

2010

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Scenario-based exercises can contribute to policy debates on climate change responses, intended to help policy-makers visualize future worlds and help guide and develop adaptive strategies. This study explores the use of scenarios by policy-advisors within three institutions: the European Environment Agency, the European Commission and Scottish public bodies. Respondents pointed to different approaches to scenario identifi cation and use as well as barriers to wider use of the method. A range of benefi ts of using scenarios was highlighted. Amongst the suggestions for better implementation offered by interviewees was the need for a scenario toolkit. An array of scenario systems (representing both climate change scenarios and socio-economic scenarios) are being used by policy-advisors and the paper concludes that the role for scenario exercises in planning and communications work derives from their capacity to develop imaginative thinking. Recommendations are proposed for improving practice.implications of situations on the basis of large amounts of information in a systematic way, and in so doing may also expose fl aws in reasoning, or bias (Lempert et al., 2003). Weaknesses in the use of a number of scenarios identifi ed by Parson et al. (2007) include insuffi cient focus on the needs of a particular audience, inconsistent assumptions and exclusion of relevant information. J. Bryson et al.such as political and institutional aspects of decision-making, or whether scenario-based exercises have a role in testing the robustness of policy decisions.

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Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

Cited by 94 publications

References 15 publications

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX

New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

Envisioning futures for climate change policy development: Scenarios use in European environmental policy institutions

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