Work Analysis of Maritime Passenger Terminals for Particular Region Based on Circos Plot

Krile, Srećko; Maiorov, N. N.

doi:10.17818/nm/2019/2.2

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…To address the planning and strategic positioning of the sea passenger port in the region, it is necessary to use forecasting models and methods. The authors' article [18] presents a solution for positioning a passenger sea port based on Circos Graph pie charts. At the same time, seaport management should research developments and trends, as well as analyze new challenges.…”

Section: Passengers Flow Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of External Environment to the Ferry Lines and Marine Passenger Terminals

Krile

Maiorov

2020

Transport Problems

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Marine passenger ports are integrated into the transport systems of cities and regions today. If there are sufficient developed mathematical forecasting models in the class of polynomial models, probability series, and a number of others, then the models describing the influence of the external environment on ferry market are not sufficient. The developed scheme of interaction between the participants of the cruise market and the mathematical model of the port as a technical system is presented in this research. The article substantiates new purposes to use the logistic function to assess the external environment. A mathematical model and the derivation of the new basic equation of the logistic function for ferry market are given. Analytical data were collected on the ports and terminals of the Adriatic Sea and the Baltic Sea, and data were selected of ship calls at the passenger port St. Petersburg "Marine Facade" (2019-2020). The article proposes the consideration of new various proportionality factors that will determine the demand for cruise transportation modeling in the short-term forecasting interval. A complete mathematical model is given taking into account the real schedule of the sea passenger port. The logistic function proposed in the article allows us to solve the forecasting problem in a new way in relation to the selection and evaluation of a cruise product. Moreover, it allows us to solve a group of economic problems related to promotion problem for particular cruise product on the market, allows us to evaluate the activity of passengers when they are choosing a cruise product, and allows us to make adjustments to the planned port working schedules and to make timely adjustments. The main advantage of the proposed model is an analytical assessment of the effect of the external environment, both on passenger ports and on ferry and cruise companies.

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Section: Passengers Flow Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of External Environment to the Ferry Lines and Marine Passenger Terminals

Krile

Maiorov

2020

Transport Problems

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“…Krile, Fetisov, and Maiorov simulated the movement of passengers from cruisers at passenger terminals according to agents' data [16]. Also, Krile and Maiorov researched the interdependence of passenger terminals with ferry and shipping lines and shown it by circos plot [17]. Kabashkin, Yatskiv and Prentkovskis point to the use of linear extrapolation of the time series for forecasting in all branches of transport, in-cluding maritime transport, all for the period from 2017 to 2021 [18].…”

Section: Overview Of the Present Researchesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model of short-term forecasting liner maritime transport in the port system

et al. 2020

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One of the preconditions for good quality management of seaports is forecasting the traffic according to the number of passengers and the number of vehicles; in this way it is possible to plan and prepare activities for the smooth operation of the ports. This paper researches the port system as part of the coastal liner maritime transport. The set hypothesis is that the model of forecasting the traffic could be presented as a function of two variables. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is used to select the forecasting parameters. Based on the choice of parameters, using the Least Squares Method (LSM), the trend analysis is performed to choose the forecasting functions for maritime liner transport on the example of the Split City port. The statistical analysis on the choosed forecasting model using the coefficient of determination r2 and adjusted r2 model is performed to confirm the choice.

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Stochastic Model for Forecasting of Cruise or Ferry Ship Arrival at Seaport for Infrastructure Assessment

Maiorov

Фетисов

Dobrovolskaia

2022

jour

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The topic of the research is the development of new models and methods to assess the efficiency of port operations of sea passenger ports and terminals in order to effectively plan the work and accurate forecasting of infrastructure development. It is noted that changes in cruise and ferry route networks, especially relevant in the conditions of passenger traffic recovery after the gradual lifting of restrictions due to Covid-19, will directly affect port congestion. It is proposed to include into the sphere of decision-making on management of the sea passenger port the models based on consideration of probabilistic processes of cruise or ferry vessels calls. The Baltic Sea region is chosen as an object of research. The main modern directions in the sphere of sea passenger transportations confirming the gradual recovery of the route networks operation are presented. The flow of cruise and ferry vessels of the sea passenger port “Passenger port St. Petersburg “Marine Facade” is chosen as an object of research. The analysis of loading of berths, the analysis of the size of cruise and ferry ships, the route networks of ferry and cruise lines are carried out. As a result of the research a new stochastic model is presented and comparison with known distribution laws is carried out. Based on the data obtained, a confidence zone for making decisions on port congestion is determined. This area is formed on the basis of an assessment of the study of the dynamics of ship traffic nonstationary intensity, followed by the application of correlation-regression analysis and the characteristics of the random function describing the intervals between individual arrivals of cruise and ferry ships. The proposed model includes the ability to consider different priorities, primarily in terms of vessel length. Digital transport model is built in AnyLogic environment for port congestion study. The received data are used for optimization experiments in AnyLogic software environment with the purpose of complex estimation of the seaport operation for a year. Based on the optimization experiment and simulation, data are generated considering different distribution laws and used for decision making in case of uncertainty for infrastructure modernization. The presented model can be used for substantiation of management decisions both on strategic and tactical levels for assessing the efficiency of investment projects on development of sea passenger ports and terminals.

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Work Analysis of Maritime Passenger Terminals for Particular Region Based on Circos Plot

Cited by 3 publications

References 3 publications

The Influence of External Environment to the Ferry Lines and Marine Passenger Terminals

The Influence of External Environment to the Ferry Lines and Marine Passenger Terminals

Model of short-term forecasting liner maritime transport in the port system

Stochastic Model for Forecasting of Cruise or Ferry Ship Arrival at Seaport for Infrastructure Assessment

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