This 17-month longitudinal study on a representative sample of 4,361 Norwegian adults employs an observational ABAB design across 6 repeated assessments and 3 pandemic waves to systematically investigate the evolution of depressive symptomatology across all modifications of social distancing protocols (SDPs) from their onset to termination. Using Latent Change Score Models to analyze 26,166 observations, the study empirically corroborates that critical fluctuations in depressive symptomatology within and across individuals occur during the first 3 months of the pandemic, after which symptom profiles are predominantly consolidated throughout the pandemic period. Contrary to established belief, female sex, young age, lower education and preexisting psychiatric diagnosis only served as adequate predictors of the initial shocks to symptomatology observed during the onset of the pandemic and did not adequately predict subsequent change observed in symptoms within and across individuals. Population-level analyses demonstrated that symptom levels strongly covaried with the presence and strictness of SDPs and were unrelated to COVID-19 incidence rates. Upon predominant termination of SDPs, population-level symptoms began declining, while large heterogeneity was present across the adult population. Detrimental long-term adversities were revealed by 10% of the adults. These individuals displayed chaotic adaptation to the pandemic and its SDPs, exhibiting substantial increases in clinical levels of symptomatology ensuing partial reopening of society and through the remainder of the pandemic, with these deleterious symptoms projected to remain heightened ahead. Frequency of quarantine exposure was incrementally tied with increases in contemporaneously experienced and long-term depressive adversities, with information obtainment through unmonitored sources further associated with contemporaneous and long-term states of heightened symptomatology.
General Scientific SummaryPandemic adaptation, whether health-promoting or detrimental, occurs during its first 3 months. While symptoms levels decline for most adults ensuing predominant termination of social distancing protocols, 10% of adults do not recover from the perturbations experienced in depressive symptomatology. Previously identified key predictors only served as adequate predictors of the initial heightened symptom reactions observed during the onset of the pandemic, rendering the individuals demonstrating deleterious change patterns as concurrently unidentified and a major priority of investigation for future research. Omid V. Ebrahimi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8335-2217 In accordance with the Transparency and Openness Promotion (TOP) guidelines, all utilized methods in this study are cited in the manuscript. These analytical strategies are further outlined for reproducibility in a stepwise and detailed manner in the manuscript and its supplementary materials with the code available on request from the corresponding author. This study was not preregistered. Our receive...