Will dry events occur more often in Hungary in the future?

Gálos, Borbála; Lorenz, Philip; Jacob, Daniela

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/3/034006

Cited by 37 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Southeast Europe is one of the climatically most exposed regions on the continent although largely neglected by studies . For the period 2051-2100, the severity of drought events may increase significantly in all scenarios compared with the control period 1951-2000 (Gálos et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

Rasztovits

Berki

Mátyás

et al. 2013

Annals of Forest Science

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Abstract& Context Projections of species distribution models under future climate are usually based on long-term averages. However, singular extreme drought events presumably contribute to the shaping of distribution limits at the retreating low-elevation xeric limits.& Methods The objectives of this study were to set up a distribution model based on extreme drought events (EDM), which uses sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech, and compare it with the results of classical species distribution models (SDMs).& Results Predictions of the EDM for 2025 were in agreement with those of the SDM, but EDM predicted a more serious decline in all regions of Hungary towards the end of the century.& Conclusion These results suggest that the predicted increase in frequency and severity of drought events may further limit the distribution of beech in the future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

Rasztovits

Berki

Mátyás

et al. 2013

Annals of Forest Science

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“…The expected increase in the frequency of extreme drought events in the future [23][24][25] combined with the amplifying effect of poor site conditions might risk the future sustainability of Black pine in this region but also elsewhere in Hungary. These forests, however, provide important ecosystem services by, among others, protecting the soil against wind and water erosion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Drought-Induced Vitality Decline of Black Pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) in South-West Hungary—Is This Drought-Resistant Species under Threat by Climate Change?

Móricz

Garamszegi

Rasztovits

et al. 2018

Forests

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This paper analyses the recent recurring dieback and growth decline of Black pine (P. nigra Arn. var austriaca) in the Keszthely mountains of south-west Hungary, and their relations to water deficits due to droughts. These relations were studied in five stands with low soil water storage capacity for the period 1981-2016. The vitality was assessed using 60 tree-ring samples and changes in remotely sensed vegetation activity indices, i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized difference infrared index (NDII). Water deficit was estimated by using meteorological drought indices such the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the forestry aridity index (FAI), as well as the relative extractable water (REW), calculated by the Brook90 hydrological model. Results revealed a strong dependency of annual tree ring width on the amount of water deficit as measured by all the above estimators, with the highest correlation shown by the summer REW. Droughts also showed a long-term superimposed effect on tree growth. NDII seemed to be more sensitive to drought conditions than NDVI. The robust dependency of tree growth on the summer water availability combined with the projected increasing aridity might lead to decreasing growth of Black pine in Hungary towards the end of the century. We thus argue that the suggestion by several papers that Black pine can be a possible substitute species in the Alpine and Mediterranean region in the future should be revisited.

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“…As a direct consequence of warmer temperatures, the hydrological cycle will undergo changes with accompanying alteration in the rates of precipitation and evaporation. In Hungary, summer temperatures is expected to increase by up to four degrees by the end of this century, while precipitation is likely to increase in winter and decrease in summer (Gálos et al 2007). …”

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Comparative water balance study of forest and fallow plots

Móricz¹,

Mátyás²,

Berki³

et al. 2012

iForest

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© iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry IntroductionThe relationship of vegetation cover and groundwater resources has drawn considerable scientific attention over the last decades. Many studies have shown that deforestation by logging or of natural origin (forest fire, wind damage) increased the average runoff from the affected area (e.g., Bosch & Hewlett 1982) and afforestation decreased runoff. Similar results were detected in recharge rates and groundwater depth, predominantly in dry regions. In Australia changes of vegetation from woodland to grassland or crops resulted in increases in recharge rates of one to two orders of magnitude (Maitre et al. 1999). The changes were largely due to the altered interception loss and the increased water extraction from the root zone. However, results of paired watershed research agreed only on the direction of the changes, not on their magnitude (Andressian 2004).Comparative water balance studies of forest and low vegetation covers have generally shown higher water use of forest cover (Ladekarl et al. 2005, Nachabe et al. 2005, Schilling 2007. Nachabe et al. (2005) analyzed the groundwater consumption in a shallow water table environment and estimated the annual ET for a forested area (1320 mm) and for a pasture (700 mm) using detailed soil moisture and water table monitoring. At the same time, a few studies have found negligible differences in evapotranspiration of different vegetation covers (e.g., Roberts & Rosier 2005). The latter study found that, although there were seasonal differences, on an annual basis the drainage below broadleaved woodland did not significantly differ from that below a pasture.Due to climate change, air temperature is expected to rise significantly during this century (IPCC 2007). As a direct consequence of warmer temperatures, the hydrological cycle will undergo changes with accompanying alteration in the rates of precipitation and evaporation. In Hungary, summer temperatures is expected to increase by up to four degrees by the end of this century, while precipitation is likely to increase in winter and decrease in summer (Gálos et al. 2007).The impact of climate change on groundwater resources was reviewed lately by Green et al. (2011). Although the uncertainty of predictions for change in groundwater recharge rates and discharge is large (e.g., future climate scenarios and groundwater extraction), numerous studies found that groundwater resources appear to be threatened by future climate change due to increased natural and human water demand.In light of the water balance uncertainties and the increasing pressures on groundwater resources due to future climate change, a comparative water balance study of an oak forest and fallow vegetation plots was initiated in a drought-threatened lowland environment in north-eastern Hungary. Water balance components were estimated by the Hydrus 1-D numerical model (Simunek et al. 2005), calibrated on measured soil moisture and groundwater levels.Our research questions were the following: (1) what is the m...

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Will dry events occur more often in Hungary in the future?

Cited by 37 publications

References 19 publications

The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

Recent Drought-Induced Vitality Decline of Black Pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) in South-West Hungary—Is This Drought-Resistant Species under Threat by Climate Change?

Comparative water balance study of forest and fallow plots

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