Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective

Agaton, Casper Boongaling

doi:10.3390/resources11060059

Cited by 19 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Several studies have been conducted to predict energy prices in situations where global uncertainty is maximized, such as the COVID pandemic and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine conflict. In particular, various advanced techniques have been applied to investigate the impact of current situations on crude oil price volatility, including empirical mode decomposition (EMD) [70], geometric Brownian motion (GBM) [71], a mixture of GBM and a Poisson process [72], and a fractional integration method [73]. In the future, the development of energy price prediction systems, including those for crude oil and NG, is expected to incorporate not only the JKM prediction model proposed in this study but also the four methodologies mentioned earlier.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Prediction Model for Spot LNG Prices Based on Machine Learning Algorithms to Reduce Fluctuation Risks in Purchasing Prices

Yang

Choi

2023

Energies

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The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the global crisis of natural gas supply, particularly in Europe. During the winter season, major importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), such as South Korea and Japan, were directly affected by fluctuating spot LNG prices. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) to predict the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), a spot LNG price index, to reduce price fluctuation risks for LNG importers such as the Korean Gas Corporation (KOGAS). Hence, price prediction models were developed based on long short-term memory (LSTM), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms, which were used for time series data prediction. Eighty-seven variables were collected for JKM prediction, of which eight were selected for modeling. Four scenarios (scenarios A, B, C, and D) were devised and tested to analyze the effect of each variable on the performance of the models. Among the eight variables, JKM, national balancing point (NBP), and Brent price indexes demonstrated the largest effects on the performance of the ML models. In contrast, the variable of LNG import volume in China had the least effect. The LSTM model showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.195, making it the best-performing algorithm. However, the LSTM model demonstrated a decreased in performance of at least 57% during the COVID-19 period, which raises concerns regarding the reliability of the test results obtained during that time. The study compared the ML models’ prediction performances with those of the traditional statistical model, autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), to verify their effectiveness. The comparison results showed that the LSTM model’s performance deviated by an MAE of 15–22%, which can be attributed to the constraints of the small dataset size and conceptual structural differences between the ML and ARIMA models. However, if a sufficiently large dataset can be secured for training, the ML model is expected to perform better than the ARIMA. Additionally, separate tests were conducted to predict the trends of JKM fluctuations and comprehensively validate the practicality of the ML models. Based on the test results, LSTM model, identified as the optimal ML algorithm, achieved a performance of 53% during the regular period and 57% d during the abnormal period (i.e., COVID-19). Subject matter experts agreed that the performance of the ML models could be improved through additional studies, ultimately reducing the risk of price fluctuations when purchasing spot LNG.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Prediction Model for Spot LNG Prices Based on Machine Learning Algorithms to Reduce Fluctuation Risks in Purchasing Prices

Yang

Choi

2023

Energies

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“…International efforts to realize Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 for universal access to "Affordable and Clean Energy", center on ensuring reliable, sustainable, modern, and affordable energy access for all, with an emphasis on renewable, efficient, and non-polluting energy sources [1,2]. Also, a decline in the accessibility of non-renewable energy, comprising oil and its derivatives, natural gas, coal, and uranium, was induced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3,4]. Hence, a substantial challenge is posed to countries pursuing resource sustainability, ensuring that technological and economic advancements result in diminished environmental impacts and enhance population wellbeing and social equity [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Valorization of Wood Residues from Vegetation Suppression during Wind Energy Plant Implementation and Its Potential for Renewable Phenolic Compounds through Flash Pyrolysis: A Case Study in Northeast Brazil’s Semi-Arid Region

Almeida,

Silva,

Batista

et al. 2024

Forests

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In the past few years, wind power has become a viable alternative in Brazil to diversify the energy mix and mitigate pollutant emissions from fossil fuels. Significant wind energy generation potential is inherent in the Brazilian Northeast state of Rio Grande do Norte, due to prevailing strong winds along the coastline and elevated regions. However, clean and renewable wind energy may lead to potential biodiversity impacts, including the removal of native vegetation during plant construction and operation. This case study explores the flash pyrolysis-based valorization of three commonly suppressed species, namely Cenostigma pyramidale (CP), Commiphora leptophloeos (CL), and Aspidosperma pyrifolium (AP), in a wind farm situated within the Mato Grande region of Rio Grande do Norte State. The study centers on determining their bioenergy-related properties and assessing their potential for producing phenolic-rich bio-oil. The investigation of three wood residues as potential sources of high-value chemicals, specifically phenolic compounds, was conducted using a micro-furnace type temperature programmable pyrolyzer combined with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py–GC/MS setup). The range of higher heating values observed for three wood residues was 17.5–18.4 MJ kg−1, with the highest value attributed to AP wood residue. The bulk density ranged from 126.5 to 268.7 kg m−3, while ash content, volatile matter content, fixed carbon content, and lignin content were within the respective ranges of 0.8–2.9 wt.%, 78.5–89.6 wt.%, 2.6–9.5 wt.%, and 19.1–30.6 wt.%. Although the energy-related properties signifying the potential value of three wood residues as energy resources are evident, their applicability in the bioenergy sector can be expanded via pelleting or briquetting. Yields of phenolic compounds exceeding 40% from the volatile pyrolysis products of CL and AP wood residues at 500 °C make them favorable for phenolic-rich bio-oil production. The findings of this study endorse the utilization of wood residues resulting from vegetation suppression during the installation of wind energy plants as potential feedstocks for producing bioenergy and sustainable phenolic compounds. This presents a solution for addressing a regional environmental concern following the principles of green chemistry.

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“…Geralmente, a queima de combustíveis fósseis para geração de energia é uma das principais fontes de emissões de dióxido de carbono (CO2), o principal gás do efeito estufa, incluindo a produção de eletricidade e calor. Por isso, dentre os setores econômicos, o setor de energia possui potencial significativo na redução das emissões de GEE, por isso, tendo papel crucial para a transição energética (Agaton, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Os artigos estudados mostraram as consequências da crise atual na Europa, por exemplo, a instauração da nova estrutura REPowerEU 1 na Europa para reduzir rapidamente a dependência dos combustíveis fósseis russos (Agaton, 2022) A maioria dos estudos estudou os impactos da crise geopolítica na Europa, porém, não há estudos que tenham feito uma análise abrangente sobre as reações de países que enfrentam riscos de abastecimento de energia rumo à transição energética. Apesar das medidas locais, a disputa global pelo gás natural colocou os países europeus em competição direta pelo gás natural liquefeito (GNL) com outros mercados, particularmente na Ásia e na América Latina, deixando milhões de pessoas sem acesso à energia (Kuzemko, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

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As consequências da guerra Rússia-Ucrânia no processo de transição energética.

Luschini

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Dedico este trabalho à minha mãe Rita de Cassia Goulart Caraseni (in memoriam) com todo o meu amor por ter me apresentado o mundo acadêmico e me proporcionado tudo o que eu precisava para esta conquista. AGRADECIMENTOSAgradeço ao meu orientador Prof. Dr. Erik pela excelente orientação, por ter acreditado no meu projeto, por todo o aprendizado e conhecimento compartilhado, por toda a ajuda e pelo apoio dedicados. Gostaria de agradecer e dedicar este projeto à minha mãe Rita, por ter sido a principal responsável pela minha formação como pessoa e profissional, por ter me apoiado e me aconselhado nas minhas decisões. Agradeço ao meu pai Anibal e aos meus familiares, principalmente, minhas avós Aparecida e Argentina, meu avô Irineu e meu tio Pedro pelo apoio dado aos meus projetos acadêmicos, profissionais e pessoais. Agradeço aos professores que me instruíram durante o mestrado por todo o aprendizado e conhecimento compartilhado, especialmente, à Prof. Dra. Celma pela amizade e assistência dadas quando eu precisei. Gostaria de agradecer à Escola Politécnica e aos funcionários, principalmente, a Lídia, pelo auxílio durante o mestrado. Agradeço aos meus amigos por toda a ajuda e conselhos na trajetória percorrida até aqui. O presente trabalho foi realizado com apoio da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior -Brasil (CAPES) -Código de Financiamento 001. RESUMO A cadeia de abastecimento energético global foi significativamente afetada pela guerra Rússia-Ucrânia (GRU), que levou a uma crise energética. Isto porque a Rússia sempre foi um importante exportador de petróleo e gás natural. As pesquisas indicaram que os países mais impactados pelas sanções impostas à Rússia, devido à invasão da Ucrânia, concentraram seus esforços em substituir os seus exportadores de energia no curto prazo e planejar uma mudança estratégica no mix energético no médio e longo prazo. O objetivo deste trabalho consistiu em verificar os impactos dos movimentos provocados pela guerra na aceleração ou desaceleração do progresso das fontes renováveis de energia (FERs) e, consequentemente, na transição energética. A revisão da literatura sobre momentos de crises mostrou interferências na cadeia de suprimentos de energia. Períodos de guerras mostraram o aumento dos preços do petróleo e a busca dos países por diversificarem o fornecimento de energia; inicialmente, com o crescimento de usinas nucleares e, posteriormente, com o desenvolvimento do gás natural. Contudo, desastres ambientais tiveram efeitos negativos sobre a geração nuclear. Em 2000, as preocupações com as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) aumentaram; levando à adoção e ao desenvolvimento de políticas de redução de emissões. A análise das políticas energéticas nos países analisados revela que as crises obrigaram os governos a repensarem suas políticas. Por exemplo, a crise de 2014 pela anexação da Crimeia afetou o fornecimento de gás natural, fazendo com que as importações europeias diminuíssem. A Energiewende na Alemanha estimulou a maior participação das FERs. A ...

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Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective

Cited by 19 publications

References 70 publications

A Prediction Model for Spot LNG Prices Based on Machine Learning Algorithms to Reduce Fluctuation Risks in Purchasing Prices

A Prediction Model for Spot LNG Prices Based on Machine Learning Algorithms to Reduce Fluctuation Risks in Purchasing Prices

Valorization of Wood Residues from Vegetation Suppression during Wind Energy Plant Implementation and Its Potential for Renewable Phenolic Compounds through Flash Pyrolysis: A Case Study in Northeast Brazil’s Semi-Arid Region

As consequências da guerra Rússia-Ucrânia no processo de transição energética.

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