Who Leaves the Line, Anyway? A Study of Who Leaves Polling Place Lines, and Why

Abstract

In this article, I ask two questions: Under what circumstances are voters most likely to leave the polling place line? Who is most likely to leave the polling place line? I present findings from a field observation study in which field researchers observed polling place operations at precincts across the country during the 2016 and 2018 elections. I find that the number of people in line, voter identification laws, and the racial composition of the precinct have an effect on rates of reneging, though the effects are conditional on the type of election. Voters are more likely to leave the check-in line when there are a higher number of people in line. Additionally, voters in majority-Black precincts are most likely to leave the check-in line before voting in presidential and midterm elections. Voter ID laws tend to reduce the incidence of reneging, but the effects are conditional on the type of election and demographic composition of the precinct.

Waiting to vote safely: How Covid‐19 safety measures shaped in‐person voter wait times during the 2020 election

“…Future work should consider how Covid safety mechanisms impacted voter wait times across different demographic groups. As mentioned, previous work has also shown that long lines can cause voters to renege on voting or not vote in the following election (Lamb 2021 ; Pettigrew 2017 , 2021 ), with black and Hispanic voters more likely to face long lines, renege on voting, and abstain in the subsequent election (Cottrell, Herron, and Smith 2021 ; Lamb 2021 ; Pettigrew 2021 ). Future studies should examine the participatory impact these factors may have had and whether that effect differs by voter demographics such as race and ethnicity.…”

“…Second, concerning the substantive impact, adding 10–30 min to voting may act as a significant deterrent for voting. Previous work has established that long lines can cause individuals to renege on their decision to vote and leave the voting line (Lamb 2021 ), as well as decrease their likelihood of returning the following year (Pettigrew 2021 ). Though this study is unable to assess the degree to which voters reneged or their probability of voting in the future, it is likely the extended wait time associated with these Covid policies may have caused voters to leave the voting line without voting or may affect whether they decide to vote in the future.…”

“… 2020 , 440).” In a similar manner, the time it takes to progress through the voting process depends on the arrival rate of voters, how many poll workers and machines are available to voters, how long it takes a worker to assist the voter, and the time it takes a voter to cast their ballot (Stewart and Ansolabehere 2015 ). Previous work suggests alterations to the administration of elections that affect these steps can change how long and whether citizens cast a ballot (Highton 2006 ; Lamb 2021 ; Spencer and Markovits 2010 ; Stein et al. 2008 ; Stein et al.…”

“…Rather, they should be investigated further to determine how they can be implemented without burdening the election process, and their use should be guided by both their effects on voter wait times and related outcomes (e.g., evaluations of the voting process), as well as their efficacy in protecting voters. With that being said, future work should go beyond the voting experience evaluated here—voter wait times—and examine how these safety policies may go on to affect other voter experiences, such as how highly they rate their polling place, poll workers, and overall positivity of their voting experience (e.g., Stein and Vonnahme 2012 ), as well as their likelihood of reneging in the voting line and of returning to vote the next year (e.g., Lamb 2021 ; Pettigrew 2021 ). Additionally, future work should examine how these effects may be different for different voters (e.g., whether face masks deter those with hearing difficulties to a greater extent).…”

Proper Protective (Voting) Equipment: How Covid-19 Safety Measures Shaped In-Person Voting Experiences During the 2020 Election

“…The smooth administration of elections is critical for voter perceptions of and participation in the democratic process. Previous work has shown that election administration can affect voter evaluations of poll workers and polling places (Claassen et al, 2008; Stein & Vonnahme, 2012), their voting experience (Stein et al, 2008), their confidence in the accuracy of the vote count (Atkeson et al, 2010; King, 2017), whether they renege on voting (Lamb, 2021), and if they decide to cast a ballot in the next election (Pettigrew, 2021). At the same time, election administrators and street level bureaucrats were put in a difficult position when it came to conducting the 2020 presidential election.…”