Where Turnout Matters: The Consequences of Uneven Turnout in City Politics

Abstract

There is a widespread concern that imbalances in voter turnout across race and class have led to biased outcomes in American democracy. Yet empirical tests have generally found that the unrepresentative nature of the electorate has little effect on who wins and loses elections. We challenge this finding by arguing that existing research minimizes the chances of finding bias because it focuses largely on national elections where turnout is relatively high and where minority groups are generally too small a percentage of the population to sway elections. By focusing on city elections we find that lower turnout leads to substantial reductions in the representation of Latinos and Asian Americans on city councils and in the mayor's office. For African Americans district elections and off-cycle local elections are more important barriers to representation.At its core democracy rests on the vote. The vote is the primary tool for citizens to control their government. Through the vote citizens communicate information about their interests, preferences, and needs and make important decisions about who to elect to office. Nevertheless, most Americans do not vote when given the opportunity. At best roughly half of eligible voters vote in national contests. At worst, fewer than 10% of adults vote in local elections (Bridges 1997;Hajnal, Lewis, and Louch 2002). Even more importantly, those who do turn out to vote look very different from those who do not. Study after study of American elections has found that individuals with ample resources vote much more regularly than those with few resources-the poor, racial, and ethnic minorities and the less educated (Rosenstone and Hansen 1993;Verba and Nie 1972;Verba, Schlozman, and Brady 1995).The skewed nature of the vote raises real concerns about how well the interests of different groups are served in democracy. As Key noted decades ago, "The blunt truth is that politicians and officials are under no compulsion to pay much heed to classes and groups of citizens that do not vote" (1949, 99).

Failed State: Political Corruption and the Collapse of Democracy in Bell, California

“…However, they noted that, controlling for socio-economic factors and citizenship, Hispanics are not associated with lower rates of turnout in California municipal elections. Finally, Hajnal and Trounstine (2005) found that lower turnout rates at the local level leads to political underrepresentation, particularly for Asian Americans and Latinos.…”

Public Accountability and Political Participation: Effects of a Face-to-Face Feedback Intervention on Voter Turnout of Public Housing Residents

“…In fact, Hajnal and Trounstine (2005) argue that the skew of representation resulting from uneven participation is likely to be more severe in elections in which overall rates of turnout are exceedingly low such as low salience municipal elections. Through a series of simulations, Hajnal and Trounstine (2005) uncover a number of instances in which higher rates of turnout among urban ethnic minority groups would have influenced the outcome of municipal elections. The different ethnic and ideological orientations of representatives in the counterfactual scenarios Hajnal and Trounstine (2005) examine likely would have impacted local policy outcomes.…”

“…Through a series of simulations, Hajnal and Trounstine (2005) uncover a number of instances in which higher rates of turnout among urban ethnic minority groups would have influenced the outcome of municipal elections. The different ethnic and ideological orientations of representatives in the counterfactual scenarios Hajnal and Trounstine (2005) examine likely would have impacted local policy outcomes. In many ways, the composition of chambers of government, particularly at the local level, can have an effect upon the quality and availability of public assistance programs such as public housing.…”

Mobilization Against the Left? Partisan Consequences of Voter Turnout in the Post-Communist Context

“…From their point of view, turnout level can truly suggest "who wins and loses" (cf. Hajnal and Trounstine 2005). The study of Pacek and Radcliff (1995), inspired by the pathbreaking work of DeNardo (1980), is seminal in this respect.…”