When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19, has spread rapidly within the United States. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States on March 12, 2020 was 1,629 which grew to 18,747 confirmed cases within seven days (Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2020a). The primary strategy suggested by governments worldwide to reduce the spread of COVID-19 is social distancing (Australian Government Department of Health. 2020;

Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020

“…This evidence reflects in the coefficient estimates of stringency index, government effectiveness, democracy, health expenditures, vulnerable employees, capita GNI, and level pollution. These cross-country findings are consistent with several case studies of COVID-19 Dave et al (2020). find in the data of U.S. states that approximately three weeks following the adoption of a Shelter-in-Place Orders (SIPO), cumulative COVID-19 cases fell by 44 percent and, in an event-study analysis, that SIPO-induced case reductions grew larger over time, with the early adopters and high population density states appear to reap larger benefits from their SIPOs, though the estimated mortality reduction effects were imprecisely estimated.…”

Understanding Spatial Variation in COVID-19 across the United States

“…As we would expect, in the early days since onset coefficients on the different regressors tend to be close to zero. 6 In sum, whether defining the sample by calendar dates or by days since onset, we find substantial persistence in the determinants of spatial variation in disease severity.…”

Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19

“…(2007) find local NPIs reduce "peak mortality" but find mostly statistically insignificant impacts on cumulative mortality in their sample of 17 cities in 1918-19 Barro (2020). finds the same in a broader sample of US cities for 1918-20 Dave et. al (2020).…”