What Controls Maximum Magnitudes of Giant Subduction Earthquakes?

Muldashev, Iskander; Sobolev, S. V.

doi:10.1029/2020gc009145

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Our models use a visco-plastic subduction interface based on the weakest quartzite rheological flow law from Ranalli (1997). This rheology was shown to be efficient in modeling a quartz-dominated "melange" at the interface (Sobolev et al, 2006;Muldashev & Sobolev, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trench migration and slab buckling control the formation of the Central Andes

Pons¹,

Sobolev²,

Liu³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The formation of the Central Andes dates back to ~50 Ma, but its most pronounced phase, including the growth of the Altiplano-Puna Plateau and pulsatile tectonic shortening phases, occurred within the last 25 Ma. The reason for this evolution remains unexplained. Using geodynamic numerical modeling we infer that the primary cause of the pulses of tectonic shortening and growth of Central Andes is the changing geometry of the subducted Nazca plate, and particularly the steepening of the mid-mantle slab segment which results in a slowing down of the trench retreat and subsequent shortening of the advancing South America plate. This steepening first happens after the end of the flat slab episode at ~25 Ma, and later during the buckling and stagnation of the slab in the mantle transition zone. The Intensity of the shortening events is enhanced by the processes that mechanically weaken the lithosphere of the South America plate, which were suggested in previous studies. These processes include delamination of the mantle lithosphere and weakening of the foreland sediments. Our new modeling results are consistent with the timing and amplitude of the deformation from geological data in the Central Andes at the Altiplano latitude.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trench migration and slab buckling control the formation of the Central Andes

Pons¹,

Sobolev²,

Liu³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Meanwhile, Soloviev and Ismail-Zadeh (2003) showed that one can expect seismic events in the region with M > 8.5, if two other factors-the geometry of the subduction zone and the direction of the plate convergence-that influence earthquake magnitudes and their locations are considered. Numerical models of seismic cycles for subduction zones showed also that low-angle subduction and thick sediments in the subduction channel could be additional factors controlling huge tectonic stress releases in giant earthquakes (Muldashev and Sobolev 2020).…”

Section: Sunda Arcmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Modelling of Lithospheric Block-and-Fault Dynamics: What Did We Learn About Large Earthquake Occurrences and Their Frequency?

Ismail‐Zadeh

Soloviev

2022

Surv Geophys

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Dynamics of lithospheric plates resulting in localisation of tectonic stresses and their release in large earthquakes provides important information for seismic hazard assessments. Numerical modelling of the dynamics and earthquake simulations have been changing our view about occurrences of large earthquakes in a system of major regional faults and about the recurrence time of the earthquakes. Here, we overview quantitative models of tectonic stress generation and stress transfer, models of dynamic systems reproducing basic features of seismicity, and fault dynamics models. Then, we review the thirty-year efforts in the modelling of lithospheric block-and-fault dynamics, which allowed us to better understand how the blocks react to the plate motion, how stresses are localised and released in earthquakes, how rheological properties of fault zones exert influence on the earthquake dynamics, where large seismic events occur, and what is the recurrence time of these events. A few key factors influencing the earthquake sequences, clustering, and magnitude are identified including lithospheric plate driving forces, the geometry of fault zones, and their physical properties. We illustrate the effects of the key factors by analysing the block-and-fault dynamics models applied to several earthquake-prone regions, such as Carpathians, Caucasus, Tibet-Himalaya, and the Sunda arc, as well as to the global tectonic plate dynamics.

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“…Attempts to obtain physically motivated constraints on the maximum magnitude utilizing convergence rate, age of the oceanic crust and sediment thickness have been rather unsuccessful (Okal, 2015). Ongoing research explores these and other controlling factors of subduction zone seismicity, including small-and large-scale roughness of the subduction interface, static friction coefficient, upper plate strain and rigidity, dip angle and curvature (e.g., Heuret et al, 2012;Bletery et al, 2016;Sallarès and Ranero, 2019;Rijsingen, et al, 2019;Muldashev and Sobolev, 2020). Additionally, rupture cycles and supercycles over multiple segments controlled by geological asperities have been proposed (Philibosian and Meltzner, 2020).…”

Section: Other Constraints (S6)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

et al. 2021

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Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

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What Controls Maximum Magnitudes of Giant Subduction Earthquakes?

Cited by 19 publications

References 45 publications

Trench migration and slab buckling control the formation of the Central Andes

Trench migration and slab buckling control the formation of the Central Andes

Numerical Modelling of Lithospheric Block-and-Fault Dynamics: What Did We Learn About Large Earthquake Occurrences and Their Frequency?

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

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