Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan

Wu, Pei-Chih; Guo, How‐Ran; Lung, Shih-Chun Candice; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Su, Huey Jen

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2007.05.014

Cited by 217 publications

(213 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Several studies have reported a positive association between minimum temperature lagged by one month and dengue incidence 3,4,12,23,24 . Minimum temperature is thus a critical limiting factor in the development and maintenance of the vector population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study showed a small (but significant) coefficient for the relationship between dengue cases and precipitation. Studies in the literature on the correlation between rainfall and dengue are contradictory, because the relationship depends on local characteristics 3,31 . Analysis of Model 3 shows that a unit increase in the proportion of days in the month when the mean temperature falls below 22°C led to an 11% decrease in the number of dengue cases in the following month, corroborating reports by other authors, because the vector's feeding rate declines at lower temperatures (as does the viral transmission rate, consequently) 31,32 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The variables used in these studies have been temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind velocity, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 . Studies have also evaluated dengue's relationship with socio-demographic and environmental variables in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with a view to examining the effect of seasonal and annual factors on increases and decreases in dengue cases, as well as to make predictions 9,10,11,12 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…aegypti 14,15,16,17 . The relationship to precipitation depends on local characteristics and whether breeding sites are maintained predominantly by rain 3 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal analysis of the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2001-2009

Gomes¹,

Nobre²,

Cruz³

2012

Cad. Saúde Pública

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Dengue, a reemerging disease, is one of the most important viral diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. Climate is considered an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-transmitted diseases. This study examined the effect of seasonal factors and the relationship between climatic variables and dengue risk in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 2001 to 2009. Generalized linear models were used, with Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The best fitted model was the one with "minimum temperature" and "precipitation", both lagged by one month, controlled for "year". In that model, a 1°C increase in a month's minimum temperature led to a 45% increase in dengue cases in the following month, while a 10-millimeter rise in precipitation led to a 6% increase in dengue cases in the following month. Dengue transmission involves many factors: although still not fully understood, climate is a critical factor, since it facilitates analysis of the risk of epidemics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…aegypti 14,15,16,17 . The relationship to precipitation depends on local characteristics and whether breeding sites are maintained predominantly by rain 3 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Temporal analysis of the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2001-2009

Gomes¹,

Nobre²,

Cruz³

2012

Cad. Saúde Pública

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“…Typically, the most significant time lags between temperature/precipitation and dengue are found to be around 1-2 months (Arcari et al, 2007;Cheong et al, 2013;Descloux et al, 2012;García et al, 2011;Gharbi et al, 2011;Gomes et al, 2012;Jeefoo et al, 2010;Lowe et al, 2011;Wu et al, 2007) , although some studies report lags of around 3-4 months (Bi et al, 2001;Chen et al, 2012;Depradine and Lovell, 2004;Yu et al, 2011) .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model

Lowe

Cazelles

Rácz

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Dengue is the world's most important vector-borne viral disease. The dengue mosquito and virus are sensitive to climate variability and change. Temperature, humidity and precipitation influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat, and the virus replication speed. In this study, we develop a modelling procedure to quantify the added value of including climate information in a dengue model for the 76 provinces of Thailand, from 1982-2013. We first developed a seasonal-spatial model, to account for dependency structures from one month to the next and between provinces. We then tested precipitation and temperature variables at varying time lags, using linear and nonlinear functional forms, to determine an optimum combination of time lags to describe dengue relative risk. Model parameters were estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA).This approach provides a novel opportunity to perform model selection in a Bayesian framework, while accounting for underlying spatial and temporal dependency structures and linear or nonlinear functional forms. We quantified the additional variation explained by interannual climate variations, above that provided by the seasonal-spatial model. Overall, an additional 8% of the variance in dengue relative risk can be explained by accounting for interannual variations in precipitation and temperature in the previous month. The inclusion of nonlinear functions of climate in the model framework improved the model for 79% of the provinces. Therefore, climate forecast information could significantly contribute to a national dengue early warning system in Thailand.

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Evaluating Performance

Hennemann¹

2020

Practical Machine Learning in R

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Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan

Cited by 217 publications

References 16 publications

Temporal analysis of the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2001-2009

Temporal analysis of the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2001-2009

Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model

Evaluating Performance

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