Waves of Larch Budmoth Outbreaks in the European Alps

Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Peltonen, Mikko; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Baltensweiler, W.

doi:10.1126/science.1075182

Cited by 180 publications

(182 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…To avoid the problem of nonindependence between time series and calculation of confidence intervals the analyses were bootstrapped using 500 iterations (Bjørnstad and Falck 2001; Bjørnstad et al. 2002; Liebhold et al. 2004).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed

Gouveia

Bjørnstad

Tkadlec

2015

Ecology and Evolution

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Spatial synchrony of population fluctuations is ubiquitous in nature. Theoretical models suggest that correlated environmental stochasticity, dispersal, and trophic interactions are important promoters of synchrony in nature to leave characteristic signatures of distance‐dependent decays in synchrony. Recent refinements of this theory have clarified how distance‐decay curves may steepen if local dynamics are governed by different density‐dependent feedbacks and how synchrony should vary regionally if the importance and correlation of environmental stochasticity is location‐specific. We analysed spatiotemporal data for the common vole, Microtus arvalis from 49 districts in the Czech Republic to examine the pattern of population synchrony between 2000 and 2014. By extending the nonparametric covariation function, we develop a quantitative method that allows a dissection of the effects of distance and additional variables such as altitude on synchrony. To examine the pattern of local synchrony, we apply the noncentered local‐indicators of spatial association (ncLISA) which highlights areas with different degrees of synchrony than expected by the region‐wide average. Additionally, in order to understand the obtained pattern of local spatial correlations, we have regressed LISA results against the proportion of forest in each district. The common vole abundances fluctuated strongly and exhibited synchronous dynamics with the typical tendency for a decline of synchrony with increasing distance but, not with altitude. The correlation between the neighbor districts decreases as the proportion of forest increases. Forested areas are suboptimum habitats and are strongly avoided by common voles. The investigation of spatiotemporal dynamics in animal populations is a key issue in ecology. Although the majority of studies are focused on testing hypotheses about which mechanisms are involved in shaping this dynamics it is crucial to understand the sources of variation involved in order to understand the underlying processes.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed

Gouveia

Bjørnstad

Tkadlec

2015

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Lorimer 1980;Glitzenstein et al 1986) because canopy gap dynamics are thought to be largely based on tree-by-tree replacement processes. The causes of the deaths of individual or groups of trees can, however, have a much wider spatial coverage, suggesting that the synchronization of forest dynamics at a regional scale can also occur, for example, as a result of the strong spatial synchrony of insect outbreaks (e.g., Bjornstad et al 2002). Less well known, however, is whether the aftermath of such impacts on canopy gap dynamics (Bouchard et al 2006) is also spatially structured.…”

Section: Electronic Supplementary Materialsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Large-scale synchrony of gap dynamics and the distribution of understory tree species in maple–beech forests

2009

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Large-scale synchronous variations in community dynamics are well documented for a vast array of organisms, but are considerably less understood for forest trees. Because of temporal variations in canopy gap dynamics, forest communities-even old-growth ones-are never at equilibrium at the stand scale. This paucity of equilibrium may also be true at the regional scale. Our objectives were to determine (1) if nonequilibrium dynamics caused by temporal variations in the formation of canopy gaps are regionally synchronized, and (2) if spatiotemporal variations in canopy gap formation aVect the relative abundance of tree species in the understory. We examined these questions by analyzing variations in the suppression and release history of Acer saccharum Marsh. and Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. from 481 growth series of understory saplings taken from 34 mature stands. We observed that (1) the proportion of stems in release as a function of time exhibited a U-shaped pattern over the last 35 years, with the lowest levels occurring during 1975-1985, and that (2) the response to this in terms of species composition was that A. saccharum became more abundant at sites that had the highest proportion of stems in release during [1975][1976][1977][1978][1979][1980][1981][1982][1983][1984][1985]. We concluded that the understory dynamics, typically thought of as a stand-scale process, may be regionally synchronized.

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“…As bark beetle populations build up, they become increasingly successful in killing drought-weakened trees through mass attacks, with positive feedbacks for further explosive growth in beetle numbers, which can result in nonlinear ecological interactions and complex spatial dynamics (cf. Bjornstad et al, 2002). Bark beetles also selectively kill larger and low vigor trees, truncating the size and age distributions of host species (Swetnam and Betancourt, 1998).…”

Section: Drought-induced Dieback Of Forests and Woodlands In New Meximentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Burkett

Wilcox

Stottlemyer

et al. 2005

Ecological Complexity

237

177

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Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Waves of Larch Budmoth Outbreaks in the European Alps

Cited by 180 publications

References 15 publications

Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed

Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed

Large-scale synchrony of gap dynamics and the distribution of understory tree species in maple–beech forests

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

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