War-torn Afghanistan - potential risk to the polio eradication efforts: A call for global concern!

Awan, Usman Ayub; Malik, Muhammad Wasif; Ahmed, Haroon; Hassan, Usman; Khan, Abdul Sami; Bashir, Shaarif; Afzal, Muhammad Sohail

doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2021.10.004

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Key limitations to our study may be addressed in future inquiries. First, most of our analysis and data collection was conducted right at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and prior to the Taliban reestablishing their rule in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. troops and their NATO partners in mid-2021 [36,37]. Therefore, our study does need to be viewed within the context of these two significant political events.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Mendes

Whiteman

Bullard

et al. 2022

PLOS Glob Public Health

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Following the certification of the World Health Organization Region of Africa as free of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) in 2020, Afghanistan and Pakistan represent the last remaining WPV1 reservoirs. As efforts continue in these countries to progress to eradication, there is an opportunity for a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and epidemiological risk factors associated with continual WPV1 circulation in the region. Using poliovirus surveillance data from 2017–2019, we used pairwise comparisons of VP1 nucleotide sequences to illustrate the spatiotemporal WPV1 dispersal to identify key sources and destinations of potentially infected, highly mobile populations. We then predicted the odds of WPV1 detection at the district level using a generalized linear model with structural indicators of health, security, environment, and population demographics. We identified evidence of widespread population mobility based on WPV1 dispersal within and between the countries, and evidence indicating five districts in Afghanistan (Arghandab, Batikot, Bermel, Muhamandara and Nawzad) and four districts in Pakistan (Charsada, Dera Ismail Khan, Killa Abdullah and Khyber) act as cross-border WPV1 circulation reservoirs. We found that the probability of detecting WPV1 in a district increases with each armed conflict event (OR = 1·024, +- 0·008), level of food insecurity (OR = 1·531, +-0·179), and mean degrees Celsius during the months of greatest precipitation (OR = 1·079, +- 0·019). Our results highlight the multidisciplinary complexities contributing to the continued transmission of WPV1 in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We discuss the implications of our results, stressing the value of coordination during this final chapter of the wild polio virus eradication initiative.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Mendes

Whiteman

Bullard

et al. 2022

PLOS Glob Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Conducting clinical research where additional needs arise from the physical and psychological trauma caused by war is challenging. Pre-existing disease burdens are worsened by disrupted healthcare [ 12 , 13 ], weakened supply chains, inadequate disease surveillance, and compromised health measures; these all complicate the situation on the ground for research teams and study subjects [ 14 ]. Resource-deprived, dysfunctional clinical trial infrastructures, and the violence of armed conflict together force patients, researchers, and students to flee, searching for alternative venues for their treatments, work, and education.…”

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confidence: 99%

Calling for Unity, Solidarity, Continuity, and Access-Oriented Action in Times of War

et al. 2022

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Wild poliovirus outbreak in Afghanistan: A wake-up call for global health experts

Awan

Malik

Kamran

et al. 2022

Journal of Infection

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War-torn Afghanistan - potential risk to the polio eradication efforts: A call for global concern!

Cited by 5 publications

References 2 publications

Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Calling for Unity, Solidarity, Continuity, and Access-Oriented Action in Times of War

Wild poliovirus outbreak in Afghanistan: A wake-up call for global health experts

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