Variability of climate-induced rice yields in northwest Bangladesh using multiple statistical modeling

Abstract

Because of evident climatic variations and signi cant contribution to national food production, Bangladesh is a climate extreme hotspot region of examination for climatic consequences for rice (Oryza Sativa) crop production. This study intends to explore the variability of climatic variables (e.g., variations in mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and sunshine duration) with rice yields (e.g., Aus, Aman, and Boro rice varieties) in northwest Bangladesh. The modi ed Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen slope estimator, and multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling were used to estimate the association among these factors. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation constant standard error (HAC) and feasible generalized least square (FGLS) technique were adopted to measure the climate-rice crop nexus using the regional level dataset for 1976-2015. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variation of rice yield trends with climatic variables was mapped and assessed by the coe cient of variation. The results show that observed temperature and humidity trends were bene cial for Aus and Aman yields but not Boro yields. In contrast, observed rainfall and sunshine trends were negative for all three rice seasons. The outcomes of the MLR model explained 67%, 92%, and 83% of the variability in Aus, Aman, and Boro rice yields in the study region. The model outcomes showed that humidity and rainfall have negatively affected Aus and Aman rice crops, while temperature and rainfall positively in uence Boro rice yield. Regarding the climate change issues and safeguarding food safety at the regional level, the concerned authorities should provide substantial attention to improving heat and drought-tolerance high-yielding varieties against climate effects on Aus and Aman rice varieties.

Climate change in Bangladesh: Temperature and rainfall climatology of Bangladesh for 1949–2013 and its implication on rice yield

“…Another study [ 26 ] analyzed local-level data for climate change impacts on crop yields. A study [ 27 ] explored the variability of climatic parameters with three popular rice varieties in northwestern Bangladesh. Recently, another study [ 22 ] assessed the trends in climatic factors and their effects on the yield of rice crops in the southern region of Bangladesh.…”

“…On the other hand, parametric test like linear regression will help to detect the trends in timeseries datasets, for example, a study [ 33 ] used parametric linear regression to analyze temperature and rainfall trends to detect annual, monthly, and seasonal average maximum, minimum temperature, and rainfall trends from 1976 to 2008. Several studies, such as [ 24 , 27 , 34 , 35 ], also tried to find linear trends in the change in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh. Although numerous studies on the trend analysis of temperature and rainfall data in Bangladesh have been performed in recent decades [ 21 – 22 , 27 , 35 , 36 ], few comprehensive studies on climatic trends regarding rice yield under climate change have been evaluated [ 26 , 37 , 38 ].…”

“…Several studies, such as [ 24 , 27 , 34 , 35 ], also tried to find linear trends in the change in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh. Although numerous studies on the trend analysis of temperature and rainfall data in Bangladesh have been performed in recent decades [ 21 – 22 , 27 , 35 , 36 ], few comprehensive studies on climatic trends regarding rice yield under climate change have been evaluated [ 26 , 37 , 38 ]. Due to significant regional variability in temperature [ 18 , 23 ] and irregular rainfall distribution, it is essential to conduct thorough studies at the local and national levels [ 35 ].…”

Sensitivity of Four Indices of Meteorological Drought for Rainfed Maize Yield Prediction in the State of Sinaloa, Mexico

“…To obtain RMY pr , MLR [10,50] were initially applied, with the best model variable selection method. For the models that did not present normality in the residuals, an MNR was applied.…”

Climate change induced human displacement in Bangladesh: Implications on the livelihood of displaced riverine island dwellers and their adaptation strategies

“…It exacerbates abundant problems, including severe direct and indirect life and livelihood issues ( Kabir R. et al, 2016 ). However, one of the most catastrophic implications of climate change is that people are being forced to flee their homes, lands, and livelihoods due to natural disasters caused by climate change ( Barua et al, 2017 ; Islam et al, 2022 ). Many tens of millions of people will be displaced due to these processes in the coming years ( Rahman, 2021 ).…”